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Population growth
Increase in the number of individuals in a population

Population growth—the increase in the number of people in a population—has expanded the global population from 1 billion in 1800 to 8.2 billion in 2025, with an annual growth rate near 0.85%. Since the Black Death, advances in agricultural productivity and medicine fueled growth, though many developed nations now experience slowed increases due to the demographic transition. Population growth combined with increased consumption drives environmental concerns like biodiversity loss and climate change through overexploitation. Global efforts, including the Sustainable Development Goals, aim to balance human development with environmental sustainability amid expected population peaks around 10 billion by the 2080s.

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History

World population has been rising continuously since the end of the Black Death, around the year 1350.12 Population began growing rapidly in the Western world during the industrial revolution. The most significant increase in the world's population has been since the 1950s, mainly due to medical advancements13 and increases in agricultural productivity.1415

Haber process

Main article: Haber process § Economic and environmental aspects

Due to its dramatic impact on the human ability to grow food, the Haber process, named after one of its inventors, the German chemist Fritz Haber, served as the "detonator of the population explosion", enabling the global population to increase from 1.6 billion in 1900 to 7.7 billion by November 2019.16

Thomas McKeown hypotheses

Some of the reasons for the "Modern Rise of Population"17 were particularly investigated by the British health scientist Thomas McKeown (1912–1988). In his publications, McKeown challenged four theories about the population growth:

  1. McKeown stated that the growth in Western population, particularly surging in the 19th century, was not so much caused by an increase in fertility, but largely by a decline of mortality particularly of childhood mortality followed by infant mortality,1819
  2. The decline of mortality could largely be attributed to rising standards of living, whereby McKeown put most emphasis on improved nutritional status,
  3. McKeown questioned the effectiveness of public health measures, including sanitary reforms, vaccination and quarantine,20
  4. The “McKeown thesis" states that curative medicine measures played little role in mortality decline, not only prior to the mid-20th century21 but also until well into the 20th century.22

Although the McKeown thesis has been heavily disputed, recent studies have confirmed the value of his ideas.23 His work is pivotal for present day thinking about population growth, birth control, public health and medical care. McKeown had a major influence on many population researchers, such as health economists and Nobel prize winners Robert W. Fogel (1993) and Angus Deaton (2015). The latter considered McKeown as "the founder of social medicine".24

Growth rate models

The "population growth rate" is the rate at which the number of individuals in a population increases in a given time period, expressed as a fraction of the initial population. Specifically, population growth rate refers to the change in population over a unit time period, often expressed as a percentage of the number of individuals in the population at the beginning of that period. This can be written as the formula, valid for a sufficiently small time interval:

P o p u l a t i o n   g r o w t h   r a t e = P ( t 2 ) − P ( t 1 ) P ( t 1 ) ( t 2 − t 1 ) {\displaystyle Population\ growth\ rate={\frac {P(t_{2})-P(t_{1})}{P(t_{1})(t_{2}-t_{1})}}}

A positive growth rate indicates that the population is increasing, while a negative growth rate indicates that the population is decreasing. A growth ratio of zero indicates that there were the same number of individuals at the beginning and end of the period—a growth rate may be zero even when there are significant changes in the birth rates, death rates, immigration rates, and age distribution between the two times.25

A related measure is the net reproduction rate. In the absence of migration, a net reproduction rate of more than 1 indicates that the population of females is increasing, while a net reproduction rate less than one (sub-replacement fertility) indicates that the population of females is decreasing.

Most populations do not grow exponentially, rather they follow a logistic model. Once the population has reached its carrying capacity, it will stabilize and the exponential curve will level off towards the carrying capacity, which is usually when a population has depleted most its natural resources.26 In the world human population, growth may be said to have been following a linear trend throughout the last few decades.27

Logistic equation

The growth of a population can often be modelled by the logistic equation28

d P d t = r P ( 1 − P K ) , {\displaystyle {\frac {dP}{dt}}=rP\left(1-{\frac {P}{K}}\right),}

where

  • P ( t ) {\displaystyle P(t)} = the population after time t;
  • t {\displaystyle t} = time a population grows;
  • r {\displaystyle r} = the relative growth rate coefficient;
  • K {\displaystyle K} = the carrying capacity of the population; defined by ecologists as the maximum population size that a particular environment can sustain.29

As it is a separable differential equation, the population may be solved explicitly, producing a logistic function:

P ( t ) = K 1 + A e − r t {\displaystyle P(t)={\frac {K}{1+Ae^{-rt}}}} ,

where A = K − P 0 P 0 {\displaystyle A={\frac {K-P_{0}}{P_{0}}}} and P 0 {\displaystyle P_{0}} is the initial population at time 0.

Global population growth rate

Further information: Total fertility rate, Estimates of historical world population, and Population dynamics

See also: Human overpopulation and Overshoot (population)

The world population growth rate peaked in 1963 at 2.2% per year and subsequently declined.30 In 2017, the estimated annual growth rate was 1.1%.31 The CIA World Factbook gives the world annual birthrate, mortality rate, and growth rate as 1.86%, 0.78%, and 1.08% respectively.32 The last 100 years have seen a massive fourfold increase in the population, due to medical advances, lower mortality rates, and an increase in agricultural productivity made possible by the Green Revolution.33

The annual increase in the number of living humans peaked at 88.0 million in 1989, then slowly declined to 73.9 million in 2003, after which it rose again to 75.2 million in 2006. In 2017, the human population increased by 83 million.34 Generally, developed nations have seen a decline in their growth rates in recent decades, though annual growth rates remain above 2% in some countries of the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa, and also in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Latin America.35

In some countries the population is declining, especially in Eastern Europe, mainly due to low fertility rates, high death rates and emigration. In Southern Africa, growth is slowing due to the high number of AIDS-related deaths. Some Western Europe countries might also experience population decline.36 Japan's population began decreasing in 2005.37

The United Nations Population Division projects world population to reach 11.2 billion by the end of the 21st century. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projects that the global population will peak in 2064 at 9.73 billion and decline to 8.89 billion in 2100. 38 A 2014 study in Science concludes that the global population will reach 11 billion by 2100, with a 70% chance of continued growth into the 22nd century.3940 The German Foundation for World Population reported in December 2019 that the global human population grows by 2.6 people every second, and could reach 8 billion by 2023.4142

Growth by country

Main article: List of countries by population growth rate

According to United Nations population statistics, the world population grew by 30%, or 1.6 billion humans, between 1990 and 2010.43 In number of people the increase was highest in India (350 million) and China (196 million). Population growth rate was among highest in the United Arab Emirates (315%) and Qatar (271%).44

Growth rates of the world's most populous countries
RankCountryPopulationAnnual Growth (%)
199020102020 (est.)451990–20102010–2020
World5,306,425,0006,895,889,0007,503,828,1801.3%0.8%
1 China1,139,060,0001,341,335,0001,384,688,9860.8%0.3%
2 India873,785,0001,224,614,0001,333,000,0001.7%0.9%
3 United States253,339,000310,384,000329,256,4651.0%0.6%
4 Indonesia184,346,000239,871,000262,787,4031.3%0.9%
5 Brazil149,650,000194,946,000208,846,8921.3%0.7%
6 Pakistan111,845,000173,593,000207,862,5182.2%1.8%
7 Nigeria97,552,000158,423,000203,452,5052.5%2.5%
8 Bangladesh105,256,000148,692,000159,453,0011.7%0.7%
9 Russia148,244,000142,958,000142,122,776-0.2%−0.1%
10 Japan122,251,000128,057,000126,168,1560.2%−0.1%

Many of the world's countries, including many in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, South Asia and South East Asia, have seen a sharp rise in population since the end of the Cold War. The fear is that high population numbers are putting further strain on natural resources, food supplies, fuel supplies, employment, housing, etc. in some of the less fortunate countries. For example, the population of Chad has ultimately grown from 6,279,921 in 1993 to 10,329,208 in 2009,46 further straining its resources. Vietnam, Mexico, Nigeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the DRC are witnessing a similar growth in population.

The following table gives some example countries or territories:

Country/territoryPopulation inLife expectancyin years (2008)Total populationgrowth from 1960sto 2007–2011
19671990199420022008
Eritrea*N/A*N/A*3,437,000474,298,2695,673,5204861492,236,520
Ethiopia*23,457,000*5050,974,000* 5154,939,0005267,673,031(2003)79,221,00053555455,764,000
Sudan14,355,000†5525,204,000† 5627,361,000†5738,114,160 (2003)†42,272,000†5850†5927,917,000
Chad3,410,000605,679,000616,183,000629,253,493(2003)10,329,208 (2009)6347646,919,205
Niger3,546,000657,732,000668,846,0006710,790,352 (2001)15,306,252 (2009)68446911,760,252
Nigeria61,450,0007088,500,00071108,467,00072129,934,911158,259,00073477496,809,000
Mali4,745,000758,156,0007610,462,0007711,340,48014,517,176(2010)7850799,772,176
Mauritania1,050,000802,025,000 812,211,000822,667,859 (2003)3,291,000 (2009)8354842,241,000
Senegal3,607,000857,327,000868,102,000879,967,21513,711,597 (2009)88578910,104,597
Gambia343,00090861,000911,081,000921,367,124 (2000)1,705,0009355941,362,000
Algeria11,833,126 9525,012,0009627,325,000 9732,818,500 (2003)34,895,00098997410023,061,874
The DRC/Zaire16,353,00010135,562,00010242,552,00010355,225,478 (2003)70,916,439 1041055410654,563,439
Egypt30,083,419 10753,153,00010858,326,00010970,712,345 (2003)79,089,650 1101117211249,006,231
Réunion(overseas region of France)418,000113N/A114N/A115720,934 (2003)827,000 (2009) 116N/A117409,000
Falkland Islands(British Overseas Territory)2,500118N/A119N/A1202,967 (2003)3,140(2010)121N/A122640
Chile8,935,50012313,173,00012413,994,00012515,116,43517,224,200 (2011)771268,288,700
Colombia19,191,00012732,987,00012834,520,00012941,088,22745,925,397 (2010)1307313126,734,397
Brazil85,655,000132150,368,000133153,725,000134174,468,575 (2000)190,732,694 (2010) 13572136105,077,694
Mexico45,671,00013786,154,00013893,008,000139103,400,165 (2000)112,322,757 (2010)1407614166,651,757
Fiji476,727 (1966)142765,000143771,000144844,330 (2001)849,000145 (2010)70146372,273
Nauru6,050 14710,000148N/A14912,3299,322 (2011)150N/A1513,272
Jamaica1,876,0001522,420,0001532,429,0001542,695,867 (2003)2,847,232155(2010)74156971,232
Australia11,540,764 15717,086,00015817,843,00015919,546,792 (2003)27,143,718160 (2010)8216110,066,508
Albania1,965,500 (1964)1623,250,0001633,414,0001643,510,4842,986,952 (July 2010 est.)165166781671,021,452
Poland31,944,00016838,180,00016938,554,00017038,626,349 (2001)38,192,000 (2010)171751726,248,000
Hungary10,212,00017310,553,00017410,261,00017510,106,0179,979,000 (2010)17673177-142,000
Bulgaria8,226,564 (1965)1788,980,0001798,443,0001807,707,495(2000)7,351,234 (2011)18173182-875,330
United Kingdom55,068,000 (1966)18357,411,00018458,091,00018558,789,19462,008,048 (2010)186791877,020,048
Ireland2,884,002 (1966)1883,503,0001893,571,0001903,840,838 (2000)4,470,700191 (2010)781921,586,698
People's Republic of China720,000,0001931,139,060,0001941,208,841,0001951,286,975,468 (2004)1,339,724,852 (2010)19673197619,724,852
Japan98,274,961 (1965)198123,537,000199124,961,000200127,333,002127,420,000 (2010)2018220228,123,865
India#511,115,000203843,931,000204918,570,0002051,028,610,328 (2001)1,210,193,422 (2011)20669207699,078,422
Singapore1,956,000 (1967)2083,003,000 (1990) 2092,930,000 (1994)2104,452,732 (2002)5,076,700 (2010)21182 (2008)2123,120,700
Monaco24,000 (1967)21329,000 (1990) 214N/A (1994)21531,842 (2000)35,586216 (2010)(2008)21711,586
Greece8,716,000 (1967)21810,123,000 (1990) 21910,426,000 (1994)22010,964,020 (2001)22111,305,118 (2011)222N/A (2008)2232,589,118
Faroe Islands(Danish dependency)38,000 (1967)224N/A (1990) 225N/A (1994)22646,345 (2000)48,917 (2010) 227N/A (2008)22818,917
Liechtenstein20,000 (1967)22929,000 (1990) 230N/A (1994)23133,307 (2000)35,789 (2009)232(2008)23315,789
South Korea29,207,856 (1966)23442,793,000 (1990) 23544,453,000 (1994)23648,324,000 (2003)48,875,000 (2010) 237(2008)23819,667,144
North Korea12,700,000 (1967)23921,773,000 (1990) 24023,483,000 (1994)24122,224,195 (2002)24,051,218 (2010)242(2008)24311,351,218
Brunei107,200 (1967)244266,000 (1990) 245280,000 (1994)246332,844 (2001)401,890 (2011)24776 (2008)248306,609
Malaysia10,671,000 (1967)24917,861,000 (1990) 25019,489,000 (1994)25121,793,293 (2002)27,565,821 (2010)252(2008)25316,894,821
Thailand32,680,000 (1967)25457,196,000 (1990) 25559,396,000 (1994)25660,606,947 (2000)25763,878,267 (2011)258(2008)25931,198,267
Lebanon2,520,000 (1967)2602,701,000 (1990) 2612,915,000 (1994)2623,727,703263 (2003)4,224,000264 (2009)- (2008)265
Syria5,600,000 (1967)26612,116,000 (1990) 26713,844,000 (1994)26817,585,540 (2003)22,457,763 (2011)269-(2008)270
Bahrain182,00 (1967)271503,000 (1990) 272549,000 (1994)273667,238 (2003)1,234,596274 (2010)75 (2008)275
Sri Lanka11,741,000 (1967)27616,993,000 (1990) 27717,685,000 (1994)27819,607,519 (2002)20,238,000279 (2009)- (2008)280
Switzerland6,050,000 (1967)2816.712,000 (1990) 2826,994,000 (1994)2837,261,200 (2002)7,866,500284 (2010)- (2008)285
Luxembourg335,000 (1967)286381,000 (1990) 287401,000 (1994)288439,539 (2001)511,840 (2011)289- (2008)290
Romania19,105,056 (1966)29123,200,000 (1990)29222,736,000 (1994)29321,680,974 (2002)21,466,174294 (2011)- (2008)295
Niue(associated state of New Zealand)1,900 (1966)296N/A (1990)297N/A (1994)2982,134 (2002)1,398 (2009)299N/A (2008)300-502
Tokelau(New Zealand territory)5,194 (1966)301N/A (1990)302N/A (1994)3031,445 (2001)1,416 (2009)N/A (2008)304-3,778
Jamaica1,876,000 (1967)3052,420,000 (1990) 3062,429,000 (1994)3072,695,867 (2003)2,847,232308 (2010)74 (2008)309971,232
Argentina32,031,000 (1967)31032,322,000 (1990)31134,180,000 (1994)31237,812,817 (2002)40,091,359 (2010)74 (2008)3138,060,359
France49,890,660 (1967)31456,440,000 (1990)31557,747,000 (1994)31659,551,000 (2001)63,136,180 (2011)31781 (2008)318
Italy52,334,000 (1967)31957,662,000 (1990)32057,193,000 (1994)32156,995,744 (2002)60,605,053322 (2011)80 (2008)323
Mauritius774,000 (1967)3241,075,000 (1990)3251,104,000 (1994)3261,179,137 (2000)1,288,000 (2009)32775 (2008)328514,000
Guatemala4,717,000 (1967)3299,197,000 (1990)33010,322,000 (1994)33112,974,361 (2000)13,276,517 (2009)70 (2008)3328,559,517
Cuba8,033,000 (1967)33310,609,000 (1990)33410,960,000 (1994)33511,177,743 (2002)11,239,363 (2009)33677 (2008)337
Barbados246,000 (1967)338255,000 (1990) 339261,000 (1994)340250,012 (2001)284,589 (2010)34173 (2008)34218,589
Samoa131,377 (1967)343164,000 (1990) 344164,000 (1994)345178,173 (2003)179,000 (2009)346N/A (2008)347
Sweden7,765,981 (1967)3488,559,000 (1990) 3498,794,000 (1994)3508,920,705 (2002)9,354,462 (2009)81 (2008)351
Finland4,664,000 (1967)3524,986,000 (1990) 3535,095,000 (1994)3545,175,783 (2002)5,374,781 (2010)N/A (2008)355
Portugal9,440,000 (1967)35610,525,000 (1990)3579,830,000 (1994)35810,355,824 (2001)10,647,763359 (2011)N/A (2008)360
Austria7,323,981 (1967)3617,712,000 (1990) 3628,031,000 (1994)3638,032,926 (2001)8,404,252 (2011)N/A (2008)364
Libya1,738,000 (1967)3654,545,000 (1990)3665,225,000(1994)3675,499,074 (2002)6,420,000 (2009)36877 (2008)369
Peru12,385,000 (1967)37021,550,000 (1990)37123,080,000(1994)37227,949,639 (2002)29,496,000 (2010)70 (2008)373
Guinea Bissau528,000 (1967)374965,000 (1990) 3751,050,000 (1994)3761,345,479 (2002)1,647,000377 (2009)48 (2008)378
Angola5,203,066 (1967)37910,020,000 (1990)38010,674,000 (1994)38110,766,500 (2003)18,498,000382383 (2009)38 (2008)384
Equatorial Guinea277,000 (1967)385348,000 (1990)386389,000 (1994)387474,214 (2000)676,000 (2009)38861 (2008)389
Benin2,505,000 (1967)3904,736,000 (1990)3915,246,000 (1994)3928,500,500 (2002)8,791,832 (2009)59 (2008)393
Laos2,770,000 (1967)3944,139,000 (1990)3954,742,000 (1994)3965,635,967 (2002)6,800,000397 (2011)56 (2008)398
Nepal10,500,000 (1967)39918,961,000 (1990)40021,360,000 (1994)40125,284,463 (2002)29,331,000402 (2009)- (2008)403
Iran25,781,090 (1966)40454,608,000 (1990)40559,778,000 (1994)40666,622,704 (2002)75,330,000 (2010)40771 (2008)40849,548,910
Canada20,014,880 (1966)40926,603,000 (1990)41029,248,000(1994)41131,081,900 (2001)32,623,490 (2011)41281 (2008)413
United States199,118,000 (1967)414249,995,000 (1990)415260,650,00(1994)416281,421,906 (2000)308,745,538 (2010)41778 (2008)418
Uganda7,931,000 (1967)41918,795,000 (1990)42020,621,000 (1994)42124,227,297 (2002)32,369,558 (2009)52 (2008)422
Notes * Eritrea left Ethiopia in 1991. † Split into the nations of Sudan and South Sudan during 2011. ‡ Japan and the Ryukyu Islands merged in 1972. # India and Sikkim merged in 1975.
Population growth 1990–2012 (%)423
Africa73.3%
Middle East68.2%
Asia (excl. China)42.8%
China19.0%
OECD Americas27.9%
Non-OECD Americas36.6%
OECD Europe11.5%
OECD Asia Oceania11.1%
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia-0.8%

Future population

These paragraphs are an excerpt from Human population projections.[edit]

Human population projections are attempts to extrapolate how human populations will change in the future.424 These projections are an important input to forecasts of the population's impact on this planet and humanity's future well-being.425 Models of population growth take trends in human development and apply projections into the future.426 These models use trend-based-assumptions about how populations will respond to economic, social and technological forces to understand how they will affect fertility and mortality, and thus population growth.427

See also

References

  1. "World Population 2024". Retrieved 29 July 2024. http://worldometers.info/world-population

  2. "World Population Prospects 2024 – Data Booklet" (PDF). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. 2024. Retrieved 1 January 2025. https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/undesa_pd_2024_wpp_2024_advance_unedited_0.pdf

  3. O'Sullivan, Jane Nancy (2023). "Demographic Delusions: World Population Growth Is Exceeding Most Projections and Jeopardising Scenarios for Sustainable Futures". World. 4 (3): 545–568. doi:10.3390/world4030034. https://doi.org/10.3390%2Fworld4030034

  4. "Black death 'discriminated' between victims". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 29 January 2008. Archived from the original on 20 December 2016. Retrieved 3 November 2008. http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2008/01/29/2149185.htm

  5. Hopfenberg, Russell. "An expansion of the demographic transition model: the dynamic link between agricultural productivity and population." Biodiversity 15.4 (2014): 246–254. https://ia802907.us.archive.org/4/items/3anexpansionofthedemographictransitionmodel/3%20An%20expansion%20of%20the%20demographic%20transition%20model.pdf

  6. Population Reference Bureau. "2013 World Population Factsheet" (PDF). Population Reference Bureau. Archived from the original (PDF) on 18 February 2018. Retrieved 5 December 2014. https://web.archive.org/web/20180218233032/http://www.prb.org/pdf14/2014-world-population-data-sheet_eng.pdf

  7. Roser, Max; Ritchie, Hannah; Ortiz-Ospina, Esteban (9 May 2013). "World Population Growth". Our World in Data. /wiki/Max_Roser

  8. Stokstad, Erik (5 May 2019). "Landmark analysis documents the alarming global decline of nature". Science. AAAS. Retrieved 20 October 2022. Driving these threats are the growing human population, which has doubled since 1970 to 7.6 billion, and consumption. (Per capita of use of materials is up 15% over the past 5 decades.) https://www.science.org/content/article/landmark-analysis-documents-alarming-global-decline-nature

  9. Crist, Eileen; Ripple, William J.; Ehrlich, Paul R.; Rees, William E.; Wolf, Christopher (2022). "Scientists' warning on population" (PDF). Science of the Total Environment. 845: 157166. Bibcode:2022ScTEn.84557166C. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157166. PMID 35803428. S2CID 250387801. /wiki/William_J._Ripple

  10. United Nations Environment Programme (2021). Making Peace with Nature: A scientific blueprint to tackle the climate, biodiversity and pollution emergencies. Nairobi. https://www.unep.org/resources/making-peace-nature https://www.unep.org/resources/making-peace-nature

  11. "United Nations - World Population Prospects 2017". Archived from the original on 22 March 2018. Retrieved 7 July 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20180322090748/https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/

  12. "Black death 'discriminated' between victims". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 29 January 2008. Archived from the original on 20 December 2016. Retrieved 3 November 2008. http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2008/01/29/2149185.htm

  13. Greenwood, B. (19 June 2014). "The contribution of vaccination to global health: past, present and future". Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences. 369 (1645). Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society: 20130433. doi:10.1098/rstb.2013.0433. PMC 4024226. PMID 24821919. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4024226

  14. Armelagos, George J., Alan H. Goodman, and Kenneth H. Jacobs. "The origins of agriculture: Population growth during a period of declining health." Population and Environment 13.1 (1991): 9-22.

  15. Taiz, Lincoln. "Agriculture, plant physiology, and human population growth: past, present, and future." Theoretical and Experimental Plant Physiology 25 (2013): 167-181. https://www.scielo.br/j/txpp/a/TWxQX34RrdtTmTPpDPtgNhS/?format=pdf&lang=en

  16. Smil, Vaclav (1999). "Detonator of the population explosion" (PDF). Nature. 400 (6743): 415. Bibcode:1999Natur.400..415S. doi:10.1038/22672. S2CID 4301828. http://www.vaclavsmil.com/wp-content/uploads/docs/smil-article-1999-nature7.pdf

  17. McKeown, Thomas (1976). The Modern Rise of Population. London, UK: Edward Arnold. ISBN 9780713159868. 9780713159868

  18. McKeown T, Brown RG (1955). "Medical evidence related to English population changes in the eighteenth century". Population Studies. 9 (2): 119–141. doi:10.1080/00324728.1955.10404688. JSTOR 2172162. /wiki/Doi_(identifier)

  19. McKeown T, Brown RG, Record RG (1972). "An interpretation of the modern rise of population in Europe". Population Studies. 26 (3): 345–382. doi:10.1080/00324728.1972.10405908. JSTOR 2173815. PMID 11630563. /wiki/Doi_(identifier)

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