The economies of the United States and Mexico are highly intertwined. In 2024, roughly US$800 billion of goods were transported across the Mexico–U.S. border, and over US$1 billion in commerce between the two countries occurs daily. In 2023, U.S. exports to Mexico totaled US$322 billion, while the U.S. imported over US$475 billion of Mexican products, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. More than 75 percent of Mexico's exports go to the United States, and the U.S. is Mexico's primary trading partner. Roughly 70 percent of Mexico's natural gas consumption comes from the U.S., and the U.S. imports about 700,000 barrels of crude oil from Mexico each day. Food production between the two countries is also closely integrated: the U.S. sources roughly half of its fresh fruits and vegetables from Mexico, and Mexico is the top market for U.S. agricultural exports. Mexico is the third-largest exporter of steel to the U.S., behind only Canada and Brazil; both Mexico and the U.S. have been accused of violating an agreement signed alongside the USMCA to limit steel exports between each other. Some Americans, including Trump, have said that Mexico has exceeded the level of exports allowed under the agreement. At the same time, the Mexican steel organization Canacero reported that the level of U.S. steel exports also breached the deal. Mexico is the top source of both automobiles and automobile parts imported to the United States.
Even after Trump declared his intention to impose imminent tariffs on Canada and Mexico, U.S. companies did not make a concerted effort to import large quantities of goods to the United States before their enactment. On January 29, Sheinbaum said of Trump's threatened tariffs that "We don't think its going to happen really", and that "if it happens, we also have our [retaliation] plan", which she declined to detail. The Mexican foreign ministry said Mexican officials were in talks with the Trump administration.
Trump used the IEEPA—a 1977 U.S. law giving the president broad financial power during declared national emergencies—to circumvent the USMCA's tariff restriction for reasons other than national security, marking the first time the law was used to impose tariffs. Trump cited both the influx of illegal immigrants crossing the United States's borders with both Mexico and Canada, as well as the opioid epidemic in the United States fueled by fentanyl originating in China reaching the U.S. through Mexico and Canada. In the executive order, he said that Canada has played a "central role" in allowing fentanyl to enter the U.S. and that it has failed to "devote sufficient attention and resources or meaningfully coordinate" with the U.S. to "stem the tide of illicit drugs," despite the vast majority of fentanyl in the U.S. coming from the southern border with Mexico. The tariffs are also aimed at incentivizing manufacturers to hire Americans to make their products in the U.S. instead of importing them from other countries. In later remarks, Trump repeated his hope for Canada to be annexed by the United States, and said that it could do so to avoid tariffs.
Hours after Trump imposed the tariffs on February 1, Trudeau said that Canada would retaliate against the United States with tariffs. He said that Canada would impose 25 percent tariffs on CA$30 billion (US$20.6 billion) of American exports immediately after the U.S. tariffs take effect and impose 25 percent tariffs on a further CA$125 billion (US$86 billion) worth of goods in the next three weeks. Trudeau said that the delay would allow Canadian businesses to prepare. He added that Canada was considering more retaliatory trade actions in addition to tariffs to force Trump to end the trade war, including export restrictions on critical minerals and energy products, or a ban on American companies bidding on government contracts.
Trudeau stated that American liquor, vegetables, clothing, shoes, and perfume would be among the first products to face retaliatory tariffs, and that tariffs would also be imposed on consumer goods such as household appliances, furniture, and sports equipment. Canada's retaliation is aimed mainly at "red states" of the U.S., led by Trump's Republican Party. In his speech, Trudeau presented data showing that only about 1 percent of fentanyl imports and illegal border crossings to the United States come from its border with Canada. He called the U.S.–Canada relationship "the most successful partnership the world has ever seen" across all domains and accused Trump's tariffs of violating the USMCA. He also stated that the tariffs pose a threat to American consumers and industries, urging Canadians to "choose Canadian products and services rather than American ones" whenever possible. Trudeau stated: "This is a choice that, yes, will harm Canadians, but beyond that, it will have real consequences for you, the American people. As I have consistently said, tariffs against Canada will put your jobs at risk, potentially shutting down American auto assembly plants and other manufacturing facilities."
Sheinbaum had spoken to Trump before his inauguration to de-escalate his tariff threats. Trump said that Sheinbaum had agreed to "effectively closing" the Mexico–U.S. border border to avoid tariffs; Sheinbaum denied this, but said that "there will not be a potential tariff war". After Trump signed executive orders imposing 25 percent tariffs, Sheinbaum said Mexico would implement tariff and non-tariff retaliatory measures against the United States. She said the retaliation was "in defense of Mexico's interests". Sheinbaum did not specify which U.S. goods Mexico's retaliation would target, though media reports claimed Mexico had been preparing possible retaliatory tariffs ranging from 5 percent to 20 percent on pork, cheese, produce, steel, and aluminum; reports also claimed that Mexico intended to exempt the automotive industry from tariffs.
On February 3, 2025, Sheinbaum and Trump mutually agreed to delay the tariffs on Mexico by one month, until March 4. Sheinbaum accepted sending 10,000 troops from the Mexican National Guard to their border to prevent drug trafficking. Trump said the U.S. had pledged to take measures to curb weapons trafficking to Mexico. During their call, Trump complemented Sheinbaum, telling her "You're tough". After their call, Sheinbaum directed Mexican law enforcement agencies to target fentanyl gangs, and Mexican police raided opioid labs and arrested cartel members. On February 27, Mexico transferred 29 cartel operatives, Sinaloa Cartel founding member Rafael Caro Quintero, to the United States to face criminal charges there. Sheinbaum's calm demeanor during calls with Trump and success in mitigating illegal immigration and fentanyl appeared to earn the respect of Trump and impressed members of his administration, including Stephen Miller, who is Trump's deputy chief of staff for policy and the U.S. homeland security advisor. Trump later described Sheinbaum as "a wonderful woman" with whom he has a "very good" relationship.
Trump also spoke to Trudeau on February 3. During their call, he introduced concerns that Canada was not allowing U.S. banks to "open or do business there"; Canada allows American banks to operate commercially in the country but had restricted personal banking to protect its citizens from bank failure. The Canadian Bankers Association said that 16 U.S.-based bank subsidiaries and branches with around CA$113 billion (US$78.6 billion) in assets are currently operating in Canada. After a second call that afternoon, Trump and Trudeau successfully negotiated a one-month delay on the tariffs.
Trump also mentioned during the call that he wanted to revisit the numerous treaties regulating the sharing of lakes and rivers between the U.S. and Canada. In addition, he raised Canada's level of defense spending, and questioned whether Canada does "anything" to contribute to the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), the joint U.S.–Canada air defense command that operates across North America.
On February 10, 2025, Trump imposed 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum entering the United States from all countries, including Canada and Mexico, which provide most of the U.S.'s metal imports. The steel and aluminum tariffs are set to enter force on March 12. Trump said those tariffs were "the first of many", and that over the next four weeks, he would discuss tariffs on cars, pharmaceuticals, chips, and other goods with his team. In response, Trudeau called the tariffs "unacceptable" and said he hoped talks with the Trump administration would resolve the issue, but that Canada will have a "firm and clear" response if needed. Shares of U.S. steelmakers rose in response to Trump's order, while prices for steel and aluminum rose.
On March 3, Trump said that the tariffs that were delayed from February would take effect as planned on March 4, and that there was "no room left" for Canada or Mexico to negotiate a last-minute deal with the United States to delay them further. Lutnick said that both Canada and Mexico had made progress on improving border security, but that neither had satisfied the U.S.'s demands to halt the flow of fentanyl into the United States. Canadian foreign minister Mélanie Joly said that Canada was prepared to respond, while Sheinbaum reaffirmed that Mexico's prior response plans would take effect when Trump's tariffs were imposed. U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico began as scheduled, at 12:01 a.m. Eastern Time on March 4.
Canada's retaliation began simultaneously: 25 percent tariffs on CA$30 billion (US$20.6 billion) of U.S. goods took effect on March 4, and Trudeau affirmed that 25 percent tariffs on an additional CA$125 billion (US$86 billion) of U.S. goods would take effect 21 days later, on March 25. After the tariffs were imposed on March 4, Trudeau said in a news conference that Trump's "excuse" for the tariffs of fentanyl was "completely bogus" and "completely false", and that Trump was imposing tariffs because he wished for "a total collapse of the Canadian economy" to "make it easier" for the U.S. to annex Canada. Trudeau called Trump's decision to impose tariffs "very dumb", and said Canada would "not back down from a fight".
The onset of the tariffs led to stock market declines in the U.S., especially for retailers and car manufacturers. On March 5, Lutnick said Trump was "listening to the offers from Mexico and Canada" and "thinking about trying to do something in the middle", suggesting that tariffs could take effect at a less significant scale. Later that day, Trump granted a one-month exception from the tariffs for automakers compliant with USMCA regulations, which represent about 85 percent of passenger vehicles imported to the U.S. from Mexico in 2024. Trump decided after meeting with executives from the three largest U.S. automakers—Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis—who said that the tariffs would harm U.S. companies more than their foreign rivals.
After the U.S. tariffs took effect on March 4, Sheinbaum said she would announce Mexico's countermeasures, including retaliatory tariffs, on March 9. She cited plans to speak with Trump in the intervening days as the reason for her delayed response. Sheinbaum said that if the tariffs persisted, Mexico would "reach out to Canada and other nations" and could look for trading partners other than the U.S. or shift trade alliances "if necessary".
Trump and Sheinbaum spoke by phone on March 6. Sheinbaum began the call by listing to Trump her efforts to secure the Mexico–U.S. border and fight fentanyl trafficking, suggesting to him that the tariffs would make it more difficult for her to justify cooperation with the U.S. to a domestic audience. She sent Trump a chart showing how fentanyl seizures at the border had dropped dramatically since the 10,000 National Guard troops had arrived. During the call, Trump complimented Sheinbaum and asked her opinion of Trudeau, calling her "lucky" after she responded that they rarely talked. While Sheinbaum recounted that Trump initially refused to lift tariffs, by the end of their call Trump offered exclusions for many Mexican goods.
After speaking to Sheinbaum, Trump posted on social media that he would delay tariffs on all USMCA-compliant goods—which U.S. officials said account for 50 percent of U.S. imports from Mexico—until April 2 "out of respect" for Sheinbaum, and thanked her for her "hard work and cooperation". Immediately afterward, Sheinbaum wrote on Twitter that she and Trump had an "excellent and respectful" call and thanked Trump, saying the two had "agreed that our work and collaboration have yielded unprecedented results".
Trudeau and Trump had spoken by phone on March 5, and Trump said their conversation ended on a "somewhat 'friendly'" note. However, Canada was not extended the delay of tariffs on USMCA-compliant products until after Trump spoke to Sheinbaum on March 6. After Trump's announcement, which American officials said delayed tariffs on 38 percent of Canadian goods imported to the U.S. until April 2, Canadian officials said that the planned increases in their retaliatory tariffs would be suspended, though the initial tariffs on the U.S. would remain in place.
On March 7, Trump threatened reciprocal tariffs on Canadian lumber and dairy products. He said the tariffs would be as high as about 250 percent and take effect the following week. Later, Trump said that Canada "must immediately drop their Anti-American Farmer Tariff of 250 percent to 390 percent on various U.S. dairy products, which has long been considered outrageous." Canada's tariff-rate quota on U.S. dairy products allows a certain amount of U.S. dairy products to enter the country without facing tariffs, with high tariffs only imposed if the imports surpass a certain amount. Since U.S. dairy exports to Canada have never exceeded the quota, the Canadian tariffs have never been activated.
On March 9, the day Sheinbaum had planned to announce Mexico's retaliation, she held an event in Mexico City's central plaza to celebrate the delay on the U.S. tariffs, which tens of thousands of Mexicans attended. Sheinbaum said during the event that "Fortunately, dialogue and respect have prevailed" and they she was optimistic that Mexico would not be given further tariffs and that she would negotiate with Trump with a "cool head".
Beginning on March 10, Ontario imposed a 25 percent surcharge on electricity exports to the U.S. states of Michigan, Minnesota, and New York. The next day, Trump said that Canada would face 50 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum on March 12, rather than the 25 percent tariffs imposed on every other country. Ford said that afternoon that he would suspend the surcharge on electricity exports, saying "The temperature needs to come down." In response, Trump said that the U.S. would only impose 25 percent tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum. On March 13, the day after those tariffs entered force, Canada imposed 25 percent tariffs on an additional CA$29 billion (US$20 billion) of U.S. goods. In a joint statement, Ford and Lutnick said that U.S. and Canadian officials would meet in Washington, D.C., on March 13 to discuss a "renewed USMCA".
Trump pledged to impose "reciprocal" tariffs on all countries beginning in April 2. Regarding Canada, he said that if it did not drop "egregious, long time Tariffs" by April 2, he would "substantially increase" tariffs on Canadian cars entering the U.S. to "essentially, permanently shut down the automobile manufacturing business in Canada." Trump later announced that 25 percent tariffs on all imported cars and car parts would enter force on April 2. In response, Carney said that "it clear that the United States is no longer a reliable partner", and that while "it is possible that, with comprehensive negotiations, we will be able to restore some trust", "there will be no turning back" in the Canada–U.S. relationship.
Carney and Trump spoke directly for the first time in a phone call on March 28. Carney called the call "very cordial" and "substantial", and said that Trump "respected Canada's sovereignty". Trump described his call as "extremely productive" and said that he and Carney "agree on many things". Trump referred to Carney as the "prime minister of Canada", whereas he had addressed Trudeau as the "governor" of Canada as a U.S. state. In addition, Trump said that he believes "things will work out very well between Canada and the United States". Carney told Trump that Canada would respond with retaliatory tariffs if the U.S. tariffs planned for April 2 came into effect. Both leaders agreed to start "comprehensive negotiations about a new economic and security relationship" between Canada and the U.S. after the Canadian federal election on April 28.
Sheinbaum said that Mexico had been given "preferential treatment" by the U.S. and that Canada and Mexico had avoided additional tariffs because of the USMCA. She added that U.S. and Mexican officials had a "mutual respect" relationship. Mexican economy secretary Ebrard said that the worldwide U.S. tariffs could help Mexico by making it cheaper to do business there relative to other countries. Despite Canada's exclusion, Carney denounced the tariffs and said they would "rupture the global economy" and harm economic growth. He also said he would seek to assemble a "coalition of like-minded countries" to create an alternative to the U.S., and that "if the United States no longer wants to lead, Canada will". He declared: "The 80-year period when the United States embraced the mantle of global economic leadership, when it forged alliances rooted in trust and mutual respect and championed the free and open exchange of goods and services, is over. While this is a tragedy, it is also the new reality."
Trump announced universal 25 percent tariffs on automobiles and automobile parts on March 27, which came into effect on April 3. When the U.S. tariffs began, Carney announced that Canada would retaliate with a 25 percent tariff on U.S. cars and trucks imported into Canada and that Canada would use the money generated from the tariffs to support people and businesses negatively impacted by U.S. tariffs. Sheinbaum said that the U.S. auto export tariffs were a concern for Mexico and that she hoped to continue speaking to U.S. officials to lower tariffs on auto exports, steel, and aluminum. Rather than retaliating with tariffs, however, Sheinbaum announced that Mexico would try to mitigate the impact of the tariffs by increasing domestic production of corn, beans, and rice, in addition to fuel and refined oil products to reduce its dependence on U.S. natural gas.
On April 11, Trump threatened Mexico with further tariffs and sanctions, saying that it was violating its obligation under the the 1944 treaty between the two countries relating to water resources in the Tijuana, Colorado, and Rio Grande rivers. Despite the treaty requiring that Mexico deliver to the United States 1.75 million acre-feet of water every five years, it had offered less than 500,000 from October 2020 to December 2024. Trump accused Mexico of "stealing the water from Texas farmers". Sheinbaum acknowledged that Mexico had failed to fulfill its commitments under the treaty: She said that the 2020–2023 North American drought had prevented Mexico from providing the full amount of water, but that "to the extent of water availability, Mexico has been complying". Sheinbaum said that Mexico had sent "a comprehensive proposal" to the U.S. to resolve the issue, and said that "I am sure that, as in other matters, an agreement will be reached". On April 28, Mexico and the U.S. jointly announced an agreement in which Mexico would immediately transfer some of its water reserves to the United States and give the country a larger share of the water from the Rio Grande through October 2025, and Mexico said the U.S. had agreed not to seek renegotiation of the 1944 water treaty.
Carney led the Liberal Party to victory in the April 28 Canadian federal election, with the party winning enough seats to form a minority government. Carney had campaigned on a promise to stand up to Trump's threats and protect Canada's economy; after winning, he declared: "Trump is trying to break us so he can own us. That will never happen." The day after the election, Trump called Carney to congratulate him on his victory; in a news conference on May 2, Carney said he and Trump had agreed to travel and meet in Washington, D.C., on May 6.
In Canada and Mexico, stock markets were more stable. By March 6, Mexico's most prominent stock market index, the Índice de Precios y Cotizaciones, had risen 6 percent since the beginning of 2025. Canada's benchmark index, the S&P/TSX, was almost the same level it began the year.
Many Canadian politicians, including Trudeau and Poilievre, adopted the rhetoric of national unity, and the trade war and conflict with the U.S. created a rally 'round the flag effect in the lead-up to the 2025 Canadian federal election. Both Canadians across the political spectrum and Canadian society at large have grown concerned over threats from the United States; Canadian politicians have been incentivized to "push back immediately and forcefully" against Trump and the U.S. because of the threats to Canadian sovereignty. The trade war also increased support for the removal of trade barriers between Canada's provinces, which Trudeau said that all premiers support but that "challenges within bureaucracies" persist. Simultaneously, Alberta premier Danielle Smith pledged to hold a referendum on Albertan separatism in 2026 if enough voters sign a petition in favor of doing so.
In February 2025, following Trump's initial announcement, Canadian travel to the United States dropped by 40 percent compared to February 2024. A March 2025 Abacus Data poll found that 62 percent of Canadians planned to avoid traveling to the U.S. for the next year, and American tourism groups are worried they will lose Canadian tourist traffic. The mayor of Haines, Alaska, a town connected to the outside world only through Yukon, has expressed concern that the tariffs will affect the normally friendly relations between Americans and Canadians. The shift in Canadian travel away from the U.S. could amount to an annual loss of US$4 billion for the U.S. economy. In March 2025, the Trump administration said that beginning on April 11, 2025, Canadians entering the U.S. for more than 30 days are required to register with authorities and be fingerprinted.
The tariffs could affect negotiations on renewing the USMCA, for which a review is due in 2026. Trump has ordered U.S. officials to review and report how to correct "unfair" trade practices by April 1, 2025. Canadian officials have grown concerned that Trump may threaten tariffs to force changes to the agreement.
Many Americans believe Trump's threats to annex Canada are a joke or a negotiation strategy, and Trump's tariff policy in general raised questions about whether he has a serious intent to impose tariffs or whether his orders to impose them are threats intended only to serve as a negotiation tactic. The imposition and rollback of tariffs created uncertainty for many businesses, and has led to an erosion of international confidence in the U.S. as a reliable trade partner.
In Mexico, the government and local businesses aimed to bolster a "Made in Mexico" campaign to promote domestic products. Some Mexicans called for boycotts of U.S. products after Trump's initial threat of tariffs, and a poll by the Mexican firm Buendía & Márquez found that 80 percent of Mexicans held a negative opinion of Trump in mid-February 2025, an increase from 66 percent in early January. Sheinbaum's approval rating also rose, with some polls in February 2025 suggesting that it exceeds 80 percent.
The trade war is expected to significantly disrupt trade between the United States, Mexico, and Canada and upend supply chains across North America. Many economists have expressed skepticism over the effectiveness of Trump's strategy in imposing tariffs, and many have said that increased tariffs would raise the prices of consumer goods in the U.S. and worsen the country's cost-of-living crisis. The Budget Lab at Yale University estimated that the tariffs would lead to a loss of about US$1,200 in purchasing power for the typical American household. While some companies will opt to bear the cost of the tariff, others are likely to raise prices on consumer products to offset lost revenue or attempt to negotiate lower prices for their products.
Because the United States does not produce enough oil to satisfy its demand, 10 percent tariffs on Canadian oil and energy will likely lead to an increased oil price across the United States. This is especially true in the Midwest, a region heavily reliant on oil imported from Alberta. The Canadian government had previously said that U.S. gas prices could increase by US$0.75 per gallon overnight if tariffs were imposed. Tariffs could also increase the cost of electricity in some U.S. states, especially those that rely on Canadian provinces like Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia for energy. Outside North America, tariffs on energy imports would give European and Asian oil refineries a competitive advantage against their rivals.
The tariffs could also lead to price increases in various U.S. imports from Mexico and Canada, including fruits, vegetables, beer, liquor, and electronics from Mexico and potatoes, grains, lumber, and steel from Canada. Price increases would compound with high inflation in the U.S., especially in grocery prices. The cost of Canadian lumber, used by many homebuilders in the U.S., would also likely increase. The tariffs would also cause risk to the U.S. farming and fishing industries.
The tariffs pose a risk of "severe recession" in Mexico if maintained. A year-long 25 percent tariff could cause Mexican exports to fall by around 12 percent, ultimately leading to a 4 percent decline in the country's gross domestic product in 2025. The American Chamber of Commerce in Mexico, the group representing U.S. companies in the country, said tariffs would harm both economies and "fail to address the real challenges of security, migration and drug trafficking". The Mexican automobile industry is likely to be most susceptible to upheaval from the tariffs, alongside the electric equipment sector, making it the largest beneficiary of the reprieve given to USMCA-compliant car imports.
Canada, a highly trade-dependent economy, will also likely suffer, experiencing harmed economic growth and increased prices for businesses and consumers. The Canadian economy could enter a recession within six months if the tariffs are maintained. Quebec premier Legault said that the U.S. tariffs could cause the loss of as many as 100,000 Canadian jobs within the province. Prices could also increase in Canada for even domestically produced products, mainly if the tariffs cause economic difficulties for smaller businesses. Canadian companies being unable to sell their products to Americans at the same volume would also cause some of them to cut workers, scale back, or even shut down entirely. Canada's mineral processing industry will likely be significantly harmed by the tariffs.
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In addition to Carney, the Canadian delegation included international trade minister Dominic LeBlanc, foreign affairs minister Mélanie Joly, public safety minister David McGuinty, and Canadian ambassador to the United States Kirsten Hillman, alongside other top officials.[120] Alongside Trump, American officials present for the meeting included Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, commerce secretary Howard Lutnick, and U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer.[121][122] /wiki/Dominic_LeBlanc
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