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Fact-Checking Trump’s First Post-Election News Conference

Dec 16 2024

How Democrats Lost Their Base and Their Message

Nov 25 2024

For Minority Working-Class Voters, Dismay With Democrats Led to Distrust

Nov 19 2024

FBI investigates offensive messages targeting Hispanic, LGBTQ people

Nov 16 2024

On Midterms’ Hints, Down-Ballot Republicans and the Race for the House

Nov 13 2024

New York dealt House Democrats a blow in 2022. In 2024, they made a comeback.

Nov 12 2024

'Starlink' Election Conspiracy Theory Spreads Online

Nov 10 2024

The Cumulative Toll of Democrats’ Delusions

Nov 9 2024

How Trump won — and how Harris lost — the 2024 election

Nov 8 2024

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Background

Further information: United States presidential election § Procedure

In 2020, incumbent Republican President Donald Trump sought re-election, but was defeated by Democratic challenger Joe Biden. Democratic U.S. Senator Kamala Harris of California was elected vice president in 2020 as Biden's running mate.⁹

Trump is the first president in American history to be impeached twice, and the first to run for president again after impeachment. As Trump was acquitted by the Senate in both cases, he was not barred from seeking reelection to the presidency in 2024.¹⁰

Election interference

Main article: Election interference

Further information: Republican efforts to restrict voting following the 2020 presidential election, Attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election, and January 6 United States Capitol attack

Several state courts and officials, including the Colorado Supreme Court,¹¹ a state Circuit Court in Illinois,¹² and the Secretary of State of Maine,¹³ ruled that Trump was ineligible to hold office under Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution for his role in the January 6 Capitol attack, and thus attempted to disqualify him from appearing on the ballot.¹⁴¹⁵ These attempts were unsuccessful. On March 4, 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court unanimously ruled in Trump v. Anderson that states cannot determine eligibility for a national election under Section 3. The Court held that only Congress has the authority to disqualify candidates, or to pass legislation that allows courts to do so.¹⁶

Donald Trump's false claims of interference

Further information: Big lie § Donald Trump's false claims of a stolen election, Election denial movement in the United States, and Republican Party efforts to disrupt the 2024 United States presidential election

Trump made false claims of voter fraud in the 2020 presidential election and denied the validity of the election results.¹⁷¹⁸ In July 2024, The New York Times reported that "the Republican Party and its conservative allies are engaged in an unprecedented legal campaign targeting the American voting system", by restricting voting for partisan advantage ahead of Election Day and preparing to mount "legally dubious" challenges against the certification process if Trump were to lose.¹⁹

In the lead-up to the 2024 election, the Republican Party made false claims of massive "noncitizen voting" by immigrants in an attempt to delegitimize the election in the event of a Trump defeat.²⁰²¹²² The claims were made as part of larger Republican Party efforts to disrupt the 2024 election and election denial movement.²³ Trump and several other Republicans stated that they would not accept the results of the 2024 election if they believe they are "unfair".²⁴

Trump's previous comments suggesting he could "terminate" the Constitution to reverse his election loss,²⁵²⁶ his claim that he would only be a dictator on "day one" of his presidency and not afterwards,²⁷ his promise to use the Justice Department to go after his political enemies,²⁸ his plan to use the Insurrection Act of 1807 to deploy the military for law enforcement in primarily Democratic cities and states,²⁹³⁰ attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election, his baseless predictions of voter fraud in the 2024 election,³¹ and his public embrace and celebration of the January 6 United States Capitol attack,³² raised concerns over the state of democracy in the United States.^33343536 Trump's political operation said that it planned to deploy more than 100,000 attorneys and volunteers to polling places across battleground states, with an "election integrity hotline" for poll watchers and voters to report alleged voting irregularities.³⁷

Interference by foreign nations

Main article: Foreign interference in the 2024 United States elections

Before the election, U.S. officials and former officials stated that foreign interference in the 2024 election was likely. Three major factors cited were "America's deepening domestic political crises, the collapse of controversial attempts to control political speech on social media, and the rise of generative AI".³⁸ China, Russia, and Iran were identified as mounting influence operations and attempts to interfere with the 2024 election. U.S. intelligence officials described the efforts as part of broader efforts by authoritarian nations to use the internet to erode support for democracy.³⁹

China

Further information: Chinese interference in the 2024 United States elections

China was identified as interfering with the 2024 election through propaganda and disinformation campaigns linked to its Spamouflage operation. U.S. intelligence agencies described the effort as not targeting any particular candidate but focusing on issues important to the Chinese government, such as Taiwan, and "undermining confidence in elections, voting, and the U.S. in general".⁴⁰ As early as April 1, 2024, The New York Times reported that the Chinese government had created fake pro-Trump accounts on social media "promoting conspiracy theories, stoking domestic divisions and attacking President Biden ahead of the election in November".⁴¹

Russia

Further information: Russian interference in the 2024 United States elections

According to disinformation experts and intelligence agencies, Russia spread disinformation ahead of the 2024 election to damage Biden and Democrats, boost candidates supporting isolationism, and undercut support for Ukraine aid and NATO.⁴²⁴³ On September 4, 2024, the United States publicly accused Russia of interfering in the 2024 election and announced several steps to combat Russian influence including sanctions, indictments, and seizing of web domains used to spread propaganda and disinformation. U.S. intelligence agencies assessed that Russia preferred Trump to win the election, viewing him as more critical of American support for Ukraine.⁴⁴

Iran

Further information: Iranian interference in the 2024 United States elections

Iran was identified as interfering with the 2024 presidential election through front companies connected to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and hacking attempts against the Trump, Biden, and Harris campaigns starting as early as May 2024.⁴⁵ Iran launched propaganda and disinformation campaigns through fake news websites and accounts on social media to tip the election against former president Trump. The New York Times stated the efforts were an attempt at "sowing internal discord and discrediting the democratic system in the United States more broadly in the eyes of the world".⁴⁶⁴⁷⁴⁸

Voter roll purges

Further information: Republican efforts to restrict voting following the 2020 presidential election

Multiple Republican-led administrations removed voters from their states' voter rolls in the lead up to the election, which critics argued violates the National Voter Registration Act.⁴⁹⁵⁰⁵¹ In July 2024, 160,000 inactive or infrequent voters were removed from Ohio's voter rolls.⁵²⁵³ The Ohio chapters of Common Cause and the League of Women Voters threatened lawsuits against the state over the purge.⁵⁴⁵⁵

In August 2024, Governor Glenn Youngkin of Virginia signed an executive order removing 6,303 voters suspected of being non-citizens from Virginia's voter rolls.⁵⁶⁵⁷ In October 2024, the U.S. Department of Justice sued the Virginia Board of Elections and Virginia commissioner of elections over the voter purge, alleging that it violated the National Voter Registration Act.⁵⁸⁵⁹ The suit also found a number of alleged non-citizens purged were actually citizens.⁶⁰⁶¹ District judge Patricia Tolliver Giles ruled that the removal was illegal, ordering the state to stop purging voter rolls and to restore the voter registration of more than 1,600 voters who had been removed.⁶²⁶³ The 4th Circuit Court of Appeals then upheld the order.⁶⁴⁶⁵ The administration filed an emergency appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court, which sided with Virginia in a 6–3 decision along ideological lines, allowing the state to continue purging voter rolls.⁶⁶⁶⁷

In August 2024, Alabama Secretary of State Wes Allen announced a process for purging 3,251 registered Alabama voters and referred them to the state attorney general's office for criminal prosecution.⁶⁸⁶⁹ In September 2024, the Department of Justice sued Alabama for violating the National Voter Registration Act.⁷⁰⁷¹ In October 2024, district judge Anna Manasco ruled in favor of the Department of Justice, ordering the state to restore the voter registrations.⁷²⁷³ Alabama secretary of state's chief of staff Clay Helms testified that 2,000 of the purged voters were legally registered citizens.⁷⁴

Criminal and civil legal proceedings involving Donald Trump

Main article: Indictments against Donald Trump

Further information: Federal prosecution of Donald Trump (election obstruction case), Georgia election racketeering prosecution, Federal prosecution of Donald Trump (classified documents case), Prosecution of Donald Trump in New York, and Personal and business legal affairs of Donald Trump

Trump was the subject of various criminal and civil legal proceedings before and during his 2024 re-election campaign. Specifically, Trump was found liable in a civil proceeding for financial fraud in 2023,⁷⁵ was found liable for both sexual abuse and defamation in 2023, and was found liable for defamation in a related civil proceeding in 2024. In 2024, Trump was criminally convicted of 34 felonies related to falsifying business records.⁷⁶ Trump and other Republicans made numerous false and misleading statements regarding Trump's various legal proceedings, including false claims that they were "rigged" or consisted of "election interference" orchestrated by Biden and the Democratic Party.⁷⁷⁷⁸

On May 30, 2024, Trump was found guilty by a jury of all 34 felony counts in The People of the State of New York v. Donald J. Trump. The jury found that Trump falsified business records relating to hush money payments made to pornographic film star Stormy Daniels to ensure her silence about a sexual encounter between them. This conviction made Trump the first former U.S. president to be convicted of a crime.⁷⁹ On January 10, 2025, Trump was given a no-penalty sentence known as an unconditional discharge.⁸⁰

Trump faced other criminal charges as well. In United States of America v. Donald J. Trump, Trump faced four criminal counts for his alleged role in attempting to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election and involvement in the January 6 United States Capitol attack; the case was dismissed following Trump's re-election in November 2024.⁸¹ In The State of Georgia v. Donald J. Trump, et al., Trump was charged with eight criminal counts for his alleged attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 United States presidential election in Georgia. District Attorney Fani Willis was disqualified from prosecuting the case; Willis has appealed that decision.⁸² In United States of America v. Donald J. Trump, Waltine Nauta, and Carlos De Oliveira, Trump faced 40 criminal counts relating to his hoarding of classified documents and alleged obstruction of efforts to retrieve them;⁸³ the case was dismissed in July 2024.⁸⁴

On May 9, 2023, in E. Jean Carroll v. Donald J. Trump, an anonymous jury found Trump civilly liable⁸⁵ for sexual abuse and defamation, and ordered him to pay Carroll $5 million in damages.⁸⁶ In a related case brought by Carroll against Trump, a jury awarded Carroll $83.3 million.⁸⁷ As of April 2025, appeals were ongoing in both cases.⁸⁸

In September 2023, Trump was found civilly liable for financial fraud in New York v. Trump.⁸⁹ In February 2024, he was ordered to pay a $354.8 million fine, together with approximately $100 million in interest.⁹⁰ As of January 29, 2025, an appeal was ongoing.⁹¹

Trump made efforts to delay his trials until after the 2024 election.⁹²⁹³ On July 1, 2024, the Supreme Court delivered a 6–3 decision in Trump v. United States, ruling that Trump had absolute immunity for acts he committed as president within his core constitutional purview, at least presumptive immunity for official acts within the outer perimeter of his official responsibility, and no immunity for unofficial acts.⁹⁴⁹⁵⁹⁶

Age and health concerns

Joe Biden

Main article: Age and health concerns about Joe Biden

Mass media, lawmakers, and Donald Trump raised concerns about President Biden's age, including his cognitive state, during and after the 2020 United States presidential election.⁹⁷ According to a February 2024 poll, Biden's age and health were major or moderate concerns for 86% of voters generally,⁹⁸ up from 76% in 2020.⁹⁹ According to another February 2024 poll, most of those who voted for Biden in 2020 believed he was too old to be an effective president; The New York Times noted that these concerns "cut across generations, gender, race and education".¹⁰⁰

Concerns about Biden's age and health increased after a poor performance by Biden during a debate against Trump in June 2024. That performance led a number of commentators and Democratic lawmakers to call for Biden to drop out of the 2024 presidential race.¹⁰¹ In July 2024, Biden withdrew his candidacy while stating that he would continue serving as president until the conclusion of his term.¹⁰²

Donald Trump

Main article: Age and health concerns about Donald Trump

In the summer before the election, polling showed at least half of Americans thought that Trump, who was 78 years old, was too old to serve a second term, with 80% unsure he would be able to finish out a second term.¹⁰³ Numerous public figures, media sources, and mental health professionals speculated that Trump may have some form of dementia, which runs in his family.¹⁰⁴ Experts for the science publication STAT who analyzed changes in Trump's speeches between 2015 and 2024 noted shorter sentences, more tangents, more repetition, and more confusion of words and phrases. Doctors suggested these changes could relate to Trump's moods or could indicate the beginning of Alzheimer's. One expert noted an increase in expressions of all-or-nothing thinking by Trump. A sharp rise in all-or-nothing thinking is also linked to cognitive decline.¹⁰⁵ The New York Times reported that Trump's 2024 speeches had grown "darker, harsher, longer, angrier, less focused, more profane and increasingly fixated on the past", and that experts considered this increase in tangential speech and behavioral disinhibition as a possible consequence of advancing age and cognitive decline.¹⁰⁶ Trump was also criticized for his lack of transparency around his medical records and health.¹⁰⁷¹⁰⁸

Violent rhetoric

Main article: Political violence in the 2024 United States presidential election

See also: Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign § Violent and dehumanizing statements

Several scholars, lawmakers, intelligence agencies, and the members of the public expressed concerns about political violence surrounding the 2024 election.¹⁰⁹¹¹⁰ The fears came amidst increasing threats and acts of physical violence targeting public officials and election workers at all levels of government.¹¹¹¹¹² Trump was identified as a key figure in increasing political violence in the United States both for and against him.^113114115 Political violence was at its highest since the 1970s, and the most recent violence came from right-wing assailants.¹¹⁶¹¹⁷ Trump increasingly embraced far-right extremism, conspiracy theories such as Q-Anon, and far-right militia movements to a greater extent than any modern American president.¹¹⁸¹¹⁹ Trump also espoused dehumanizing, combative, and violent rhetoric,¹²⁰ and promised retribution against his political enemies.¹²¹ Trump played down but refused to rule out violence following the 2024 election, stating "it depends".¹²² Trump also suggested using the military against "the enemy from within" on Election Day that he described as "radical left lunatics", Democratic politicians, and those opposed to his candidacy.¹²³¹²⁴

Nominations

Republican Party

Main articles: 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries and 2024 Republican Party presidential candidates

Trump filed and announced his candidacy a week following the 2022 midterm elections.¹²⁵ Trump was considered an early frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination.¹²⁶ He had announced in March 2022 that his former vice president Mike Pence would not be his running mate.¹²⁷

Trump faced opposition in the primaries. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was initially viewed as the main challenger to Trump for the Republican nomination, having raised more campaign funds in the first half of 2022 and posting more favorable polling numbers than Trump by the end of 2022.^128129130 On May 24, 2023, DeSantis announced his candidacy on Twitter in an online conversation with Twitter CEO Elon Musk. At the end of July 2023, FiveThirtyEight's national polling average of the Republican primaries had Trump at 52 percent, and DeSantis at 15.¹³¹

Following the Iowa caucuses, in which Trump posted a landslide victory, DeSantis and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump, leaving the former president and Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor who served in Trump's cabinet, as the only remaining major candidates.¹³²¹³³ Trump continued to win all four early voting contests while Haley's campaign struggled to gain momentum.¹³⁴ On March 6, 2024, the day after winning only one primary out of fifteen on Super Tuesday, Haley suspended her campaign.¹³⁵¹³⁶ On March 12, 2024, Trump officially became the presumptive Republican presidential nominee.¹³⁷ Trump was injured in an assassination attempt on July 13, 2024, when a bullet grazed his ear.¹³⁸ This was the first time a president or major party presidential candidate was injured in an assassination attempt since Ronald Reagan in 1981.¹³⁹ On July 15, 2024, the first day of the Republican National Convention, Trump officially announced that Senator JD Vance of Ohio would be his running mate.¹⁴⁰ On July 18, 2024, for the third consecutive time, Trump accepted the nomination from the Republican National Convention to become the Republican presidential nominee.¹⁴¹

Nominees

Main articles: Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign, 2024 Republican Party vice presidential candidate selection, and 2024 Republican National Convention

Withdrawn candidates

Democratic Party

Main articles: 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries and 2024 Democratic Party presidential candidates

On April 25, 2023, President Biden officially announced his bid for re-election, confirming that Vice President Harris would remain his running mate.¹⁶⁸¹⁶⁹

Concerns about Biden's age were prominent, given that he was the oldest person to assume the office at age 78, which would make him 82 at the end of his first term and 86 at the end of a potential second term.¹⁷⁰ An April 2023 poll indicated that 70 percent of Americans, including 51 percent of Democrats, believed Biden should not seek a second term, with nearly half citing his age as the reason. Biden's approval rating stood at 41 percent, with 55 percent disapproving.¹⁷¹ Speculation also arose that Biden might face a primary challenge from the Democratic Party's progressive faction;¹⁷²¹⁷³ however, after Democrats outperformed expectations in the 2022 midterm elections, many believed Biden's chances of securing the party's nomination had increased.¹⁷⁴ On July 28, 2022, Representative Dean Phillips of Minnesota became the first incumbent Democratic member of Congress to say President Biden should not run for re-election and called for "generational change" pointing to Biden's age.¹⁷⁵¹⁷⁶

Despite a handful of primary challengers, including Representative Dean Phillips, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Marianne Williamson, and Jason Palmer, Biden easily became the presumptive nominee of the party on March 12, 2024.^177178179 Palmer, who won the American Samoa caucuses, became the first candidate to win a contested primary against an incumbent president since Ted Kennedy in 1980.¹⁸⁰ Biden also faced significant opposition from uncommitted voters and the Uncommitted National Movement in their protest vote movement against Biden due to his support for Israel during the Gaza war, which collectively won 36 delegates.¹⁸¹

Following a "disastrous" June 2024 debate performance against Trump that "inflamed age concerns",¹⁸² Biden ultimately withdrew from the race on July 21, 2024, and immediately endorsed Kamala Harris as his successor.¹⁸³ Harris quickly announced her own campaign and secured enough delegate endorsements by July 22 to replace Biden as the presumptive nominee of the party.¹⁸⁴ Biden's withdrawal made him the first eligible incumbent president since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968 not to seek re-election, and the first to withdraw after securing enough delegates to win the nomination.¹⁸⁵ Harris is the first nominee who did not participate in the presidential primaries since Vice President Hubert Humphrey, also in 1968, and the first since the modern Democratic Party primary procedure was created in 1972 (prior to which most states did not hold primary elections).¹⁸⁶

On August 5, 2024, after five days of online balloting, Democratic National Convention delegates voted to make Harris the party's 2024 presidential nominee.¹⁸⁷ She selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate the following day¹⁸⁸ and accepted the party's nomination on August 22.¹⁸⁹

Nominees

Main articles: Kamala Harris 2024 presidential campaign, 2024 Democratic Party vice presidential candidate selection, and 2024 Democratic National Convention

Withdrawn candidates

Third-party and independent candidates

Main article: Third-party and independent candidates for the 2024 United States presidential election

A number of independent candidates announced presidential runs, most notably Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West. Several third parties, including the Libertarian Party, the Green Party, the Party for Socialism and Liberation, the Constitution Party, and the American Solidarity Party also announced presidential nominees.¹⁹⁵ Kennedy dropped out of the race in August 2024, although he remained on the ballot in many states. The No Labels organization abandoned its efforts to run a centrist candidate in April 2024.¹⁹⁶

With majority ballot access

Libertarian Party

Main articles: 2024 Libertarian Party presidential primaries, 2024 Libertarian National Convention, and Chase Oliver 2024 presidential campaign

Chase Oliver was chosen by the Libertarian Party as its presidential nominee on May 26, 2024, at the 2024 Libertarian National Convention. Oliver was the party's nominee in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia.¹⁹⁷ Oliver achieved ballot access in 47 states, and was eligible to receive write-in votes in the District of Columbia, Illinois, New York, and Tennessee.¹⁹⁸¹⁹⁹

Green Party

Main articles: 2024 Green Party presidential primaries, 2024 Green National Convention, and Jill Stein 2024 presidential campaign

The party's nominee in 2012 and 2016, Stein is a physician and a former member of the Lexington Town Meeting. On August 16, Stein selected academic Butch Ware as her running mate.²⁰⁰ Stein achieved ballot access in 38 states, and was eligible to receive write-in votes in seven states. She was not eligible to receive write-in votes in the remaining states or the District of Columbia.^201202203

With partial ballot access

These third-party candidates had ballot access in some states, but not enough to get 270 votes needed to win the presidency, without running a write-in campaign.

• American Solidarity Party: Peter Sonski, Connecticut school board member²⁰⁴
• Approval Voting Party: Blake Huber, activist and nominee for president in 2020²⁰⁵
• Constitution Party: Randall Terry, anti-abortion activist and perennial candidate²⁰⁶
• Independent American Party: Joel Skousen, survivalist and consultant²⁰⁷
• Natural Law Party: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., environmental lawyer and author, the party's nominee in addition to his run as an independent before he withdrew from the race ahead of the election but was not removed from ballots²⁰⁸
• Prohibition Party: Michael Wood, businessman²⁰⁹
• Party for Socialism and Liberation: Claudia De la Cruz, political activist²¹⁰²¹¹
• Socialist Equality Party: Joseph Kishore, writer and SEP nominee in 2020²¹²
• Socialist Workers Party: Rachele Fruit, hotel worker and trade unionist²¹³
• Socialist Party USA: Bill Stodden, nonprofit executive²¹⁴

Independent candidates

The following notable individual(s) ran independently for president.

• Cornel West, academic, anti-war activist, and public intellectual, previously a People's Party and Green Party primaries candidate,²¹⁵²¹⁶ who launched an independent campaign²¹⁷²¹⁸

Withdrawn candidates

The following notable individual(s) announced and then suspended their campaigns before the election:

• Robert F. Kennedy Jr., environmental lawyer, author, 2024 Democratic presidential candidate and 2024 independent presidential candidate (endorsed Trump)²¹⁹

Campaign issues

Campaign themes

See also: Kamala Harris 2024 presidential campaign § Platform, Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign § Platform, and 2024 United States elections § Issues

Harris campaign

Harris framed her campaign as "a choice between freedom and chaos" and based it around the ideals of "freedom" and "the future".²²⁰²²¹ The Harris campaign sought to highlight her experience as an attorney general and a prosecutor to "prosecute the case" against Trump by pointing out his 34 felony convictions and the impacts of the overturning of Roe v. Wade.²²²²²³ Harris had taken liberal positions on a number of issues in her bid for the 2020 Democratic nomination; in 2024, she shifted several of those positions toward the political center and embraced many of Biden's domestic policy stances.²²⁴ Harris focused her economic proposals on the cost of groceries, housing and healthcare.²²⁵

Trump campaign

See also: Trumpism and Rhetoric of Donald Trump

A central campaign theme for Trump's second presidential bid was "retribution".²²⁶²²⁷ Trump framed the 2024 election as "the final battle", and openly promised to leverage the power of the presidency for political reprisals.²²⁸ Trump heavily ran on immigration as a central campaign focus. Trump's campaign focused on dark and apocalyptic rhetoric about the state of the country and predicting doom if he did not win.^229230231 The Associated Press stated that "Trump's rallies take on the symbols, rhetoric and agenda of Christian nationalism."²³² During his 2024 presidential campaign, Trump made numerous false and misleading statements.^233234235 Trump has been described as using the "big lie"²³⁶ and firehose of falsehood²³⁷ propaganda techniques.

Abortion

Main article: Abortion in the United States

Abortion access was a key topic during the campaign;²³⁸²³⁹ it was on the ballot in up to ten states in 2024, including the swing states of Arizona and Nevada.²⁴⁰ Some pundits argued abortion-rights referendums could help Harris in November.^241242243 Democrats predominantly advocate for abortion access as a right,²⁴⁴ while Republicans generally favor significantly restricting the legality of abortion.²⁴⁵ Since becoming the presumptive nominee, Harris indicated her support for passing legislation which would restore the federal abortion right protections previously guaranteed by Roe.²⁴⁶²⁴⁷ She argued Trump would let his anti-abortion allies implement Project 2025 proposals to restrict abortion and contraception throughout the United States.²⁴⁸

Trump claimed credit for overturning Roe but criticized Republicans pushing for total abortion bans.²⁴⁹²⁵⁰ Trump said he would leave the issue of abortion for the states to decide but would allow red states to monitor women's pregnancies and prosecute them if they have an abortion.²⁵¹ In his home state of Florida, Trump announced he would vote "No" on Amendment 4, an abortion rights referendum, preserving the six-week ban.²⁵² The announcement came one day after he initially criticized the six-week ban for being "too short" and said he would vote to lengthen it.²⁵³ Trump repeated a false claim that Democrats support abortions after birth and "executing" babies.²⁵⁴²⁵⁵

Border security and immigration

Main articles: Mexico–United States border crisis and Border security in the United States

Further information: Kamala Harris 2024 presidential campaign § Immigration, and Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign § Immigration

Border security and immigration were among the top issues concerning potential voters in the election.²⁵⁶²⁵⁷ Polling showed that most Americans want to reduce immigration,²⁵⁸ and that a substantial minority of white Republicans were concerned about White demographic decline.²⁵⁹ In 2023 and early 2024, a surge of migrants entering through the border with Mexico occurred.²⁶⁰ By June 2024, illegal crossings reached a three-year low following four consecutive monthly drops, which senior officials attributed to increased enforcement between the United States and Mexico, the weather, and Biden's executive order (A Proclamation on Securing the Border) increasing asylum restrictions.²⁶¹

Harris promised to fight for "strong border security" coupled with an earned pathway to citizenship. Harris highlighted her work in combating transnational gangs, drug cartels, and human traffickers while attorney general.²⁶² As vice president, Harris announced in 2023 that she had garnered pledges of US$950 million from private companies to aid Central American communities to address the causes of mass migration, such as poverty.²⁶³ Harris stated she believes the immigration system is "broken" and needs to be fixed, and she said most Americans believe this.²⁶⁴ Harris also advocated for stricter asylum rules than President Biden.²⁶⁵ Harris supported increasing the number of U.S. Border Patrol agents and accused Trump of being unserious on border security.²⁶⁶ As vice president, Harris also supported a bipartisan bill that would have funded additional border agents and closed the border if too crowded; the bill was rejected by Trump. Trump called on House and Senate Republicans to kill the bill arguing it would hurt his and Republican's reelection campaigns and deny them the ability to run on immigration as a campaign issue.^{267268269270271272} Harris criticized Trump for his opposition to the bill on the campaign trail,²⁷³ and promised to sign the bill into law as president.²⁷⁴

Trump stated that if he were elected, he would increase deportations, send the U.S. military to the border, expand U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement detentions through workplace raids,²⁷⁵ deputize local law enforcement to handle border security, increase U.S. Customs and Border Patrol funding, as well as finish building the wall on the southern border.²⁷⁶ Trump has said he will deport both legal and illegal immigrants.²⁷⁷²⁷⁸ The New York Times reported that Trump was considering "an extreme expansion of his first-term crackdown on immigration", such as "preparing to round up undocumented people already in the United States on a vast scale and detain them in sprawling camps while they wait to be expelled".²⁷⁹ Trump stated his intention to deport 11 million people through the construction of detention camps and deploy the military,²⁸⁰ relying on presidential wartime powers under the 18th-century Alien Enemies Act.²⁸¹ Trump made false claims of a "migrant crime wave" that are not supported by data, and provided no evidence to back up his claims.²⁸²²⁸³

In regards to his anti-immigrant nativism,²⁸⁴ Trump's tone grew harsher from his previous time as president,²⁸⁵ and used fearmongering,²⁸⁶²⁸⁷ racial stereotypes,²⁸⁸ and more dehumanizing rhetoric when referring to illegal immigrants. Trump repeatedly called some immigrants subhuman, stating they are "not human", "not people", and "animals",^289290291 who will "rape, pillage, thieve, plunder and kill" American citizens,²⁹² that they are "stone-cold killers", "monsters", "vile animals", "savages", and "predators" that will "walk into your kitchen, they'll cut your throat",^293294295296 and "grab young girls and slice them up right in front of their parents".²⁹⁷ Other rhetoric includes false statements that foreign leaders are deliberately emptying insane asylums to send "prisoners, murderers, drug dealers, mental patients, terrorists" across the southern border as migrants,²⁹⁸ that they are "building an army" of "fighting age" men to attack Americans "from within",²⁹⁹ and are the "enemy from within" who are ruining the "fabric" of the country.³⁰⁰ Since fall 2023,³⁰¹ Trump claimed that immigrants are "poisoning the blood of our country", which drew comparisons to racial hygiene rhetoric used by White supremacists and Adolf Hitler.^302303304305 In the 20 rallies that occurred after Trump's debate with Harris, Politico cited experts who found that Trump's rhetoric strongly echoed authoritarian and Nazi ideology; Trump made claims that immigrants are genetically predisposed to commit crimes and have "bad genes".³⁰⁶³⁰⁷

Climate change

Main article: Climate change in the United States

Further information: Kamala Harris 2024 presidential campaign § Climate change and energy; and Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign § Energy, environment, and climate change

See also: Environmental policy of the first Donald Trump administration, Climate change denial, and Inflation Reduction Act

Climate change and energy policy played a role in the 2024 presidential campaign. In 2023, the United States saw a record in crude oil production with over 13.2 million barrels of crude per day, beating the 13 million barrels per day produced at the peak of Trump's presidency.³⁰⁸ The United States also dealt with supply shocks caused by the 2021–2024 global energy crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic and Russian invasion of Ukraine.³⁰⁹ An advocate for environmental justice to address the impact of climate change on lower-income areas and people of color, Harris supported Biden's climate legislation.³¹⁰ In 2022, Harris helped pass the Inflation Reduction Act,³¹¹ the largest investment in addressing climate change and clean energy in American history,³¹² putting the United States on track to meet emissions reduction targets by 50–52% below 2005 levels by 2030.³¹³ Harris's campaign stated that she would not support a ban on fracking.³¹⁴

Trump ridiculed the idea of man-made climate change,^315316317 and repeatedly referred to his energy policy under the mantra "drill, baby, drill".³¹⁸ Trump said he would increase oil drilling on public lands and offer tax breaks to oil, gas, and coal producers, and stated his goal for the United States to have the lowest cost of electricity and energy of any country in the world.³¹⁹ Trump also promised to roll back electric vehicle initiatives, proposed once again the United States withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, and rescind several environmental regulations.³²⁰³²¹ Trump stated his intention to roll back parts of the Inflation Reduction Act.³²² The implementation of Trump's plans would add around 4 billion tons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere by 2030, also having effects on the international level. If the policies do not change further, it would add 15 billion tons by 2040 and 27 billion by 2050. Although the exact calculation is difficult, researchers stated: "Regardless of the precise impact, a second Trump term that successfully dismantles Biden's climate legacy would likely end any global hopes of keeping global warming below 1.5C."³²³

Democracy

Main articles: Attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election, Democratic backsliding in the United States, and Election denial movement in the United States

See also: Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign § Authoritarian and antidemocratic statements, Donald Trump and fascism, Indictments against Donald Trump, and Project 2025

Polling before the election indicated profound dissatisfaction with the state of American democracy.^324325326 According to an October 25 ABC/Ipsos poll, 49% of Americans saw Trump as a fascist, described as "a political extremist who seeks to act as a dictator, disregards individual rights and threatens or uses force against their opponents". Meanwhile, only 22% saw Harris as a fascist by this definition.³²⁷ Some Republicans were concerned that Trump's former impeachment and four criminal indictments were attempts to influence the election and keep him from office;³²⁸ however, there is no evidence that Trump's criminal trials were "election interference" orchestrated by Biden and the Democratic Party,³²⁹³³⁰ and Trump also continued to repeat false claims that the 2020 election was rigged and stolen from him.³³¹

Trump's 2024 presidential campaign was criticized by legal experts, historians, and political scientists for making increasingly dehumanizing, violent, and authoritarian statements.^332333334 Trump's platform called for the vast expansion of presidential powers and the executive branch over every part of the federal government.³³⁵ Trump called for stripping employment protections for thousands of career civil service employees (a provision known as Schedule F appointment that had been adopted by Trump at the end of 2020) and replacing them with political loyalists if deemed an "obstacle to his agenda" within federal agencies, the United States Intelligence Community, State Department, and Department of Defense.³³⁶ Trump repeatedly stated his intention to have the Justice Department investigate and arrest his domestic political rivals, judges, prosecutors, and witnesses involved in his criminal trials.^337338339 Calling the January 6, 2021, Capitol attack a "day of love", Trump promised to pardon those charged for their involvement and called them "hostages" and "great, great patriots".^340341342343 Trump played down the possibility of violence if he were to lose the 2024 election, but did not rule it out altogether.³⁴⁴

Trump's 2024 campaign rhetoric has been described as fascist.^345346347 Trump said his political opponents are a greater threat to the United States than countries such as Russia, China, and North Korea.³⁴⁸³⁴⁹ He urged that the U.S. Armed Forces be deployed on American soil to fight "the enemy from within", which—according to Trump—included "radical left lunatics" and Democratic politicians such as Adam Schiff.³⁵⁰ Trump repeatedly voiced support for outlawing political dissent and criticism he considers misleading or challenges his claims to power.³⁵¹³⁵² Trump previously tried to have his political rivals prosecuted during his first term.³⁵³

Harris was tasked by Biden with protecting democracy through voting rights legislation through her work on the For the People Act. Harris supported efforts to defend election workers and counter Republican efforts to restrict voting following the 2020 presidential election.³⁵⁴ Harris also stated her intent to pass the Freedom to Vote Act and John Lewis Rights Voting Rights Advancement Act if elected.³⁵⁵

Economic issues

Main article: Economy of the United States

Further information: Kamala Harris 2024 presidential campaign § Economy, Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign § Economy and trade, and U.S. federal government response to the COVID-19 pandemic

Voters consistently cited the economy as their top issue in the 2024 election.³⁵⁶ Following the COVID-19 pandemic, a global surge in inflation ensued that raised prices on many goods, although the U.S. inflation rate had declined significantly during 2023 and 2024.^357358359 The New York Times reported that both candidates "embraced a vision of a powerful federal government, using its muscle to intervene in markets in pursuit of a stronger and more prosperous economy".³⁶⁰ The Wall Street Journal reported that economists found Trump's proposed policies created a greater risk of stoking inflation and generating higher budget deficits, relative to the Harris plan.³⁶¹ Twenty-three Nobel Prize-winning economists signed a letter characterizing the Harris economic plan as "vastly superior" to the Trump plan.³⁶² Trump's designated government efficiency leader Elon Musk said in October that he expected Trump's plan would involve more than $2 trillion in federal spending cuts and would cause "some temporary hardship."³⁶³³⁶⁴ Harris ran on a pro-union platform.³⁶⁵ She promoted the passage of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, funding for small business, and previously supported an act as senator to provide a $6,000 tax credit for middle and low-income families.³⁶⁶ Harris promised to address price gouging, bring down costs, ban hidden fees and late charges from financial institutions, limit "unfair" rent increases and cap prescription drug costs, which she said would "lower costs and save many middle-class families thousands of dollars a year".³⁶⁷

The New York Times described Harris's economic policy as embracing "the idea that the federal government must act aggressively to foster competition and correct distortions in private markets". Harris proposed raising taxes on corporations and high-earners to fund services for the lower and middle classes and reduce the deficit.³⁶⁸ Harris stated she supported increasing the top tier capital gains tax rate to 28%, up from 20% and lower than Biden's proposed 39.6%. Harris stated her support for a Billionaire Minimum Income Tax, increasing the tax on stock buybacks to 4%, and a ten-fold tax reduction for small business ranging from $5,000 to $50,000 in relief.³⁶⁹ Harris also supported efforts to create a tax on unrealized gains for those with more than a $100 million in net worth if they do not pay a minimum 25% tax rate on their income inclusive of unrealized gains so long as 80% of said wealth is in tradeable assets. The plan would impact a small percentage of the wealthy in the United States, and Axios reported most tech founders and investors would be spared.³⁷⁰ Harris also announced support for restoring the corporate tax rate to 28% among several other tax proposals to raise taxes and close loopholes for corporations and the wealthy that would bring in $5 trillion in additional revenue over 10 years.³⁷¹ Harris proposed tax breaks to companies delivering economic benefit, such as manufacturing technologies that mitigate climate change and building affordable housing, and proposed a ban on corporate price gouging to "help the food industry become more competitive".³⁷² Harris also expressed support for student debt relief,³⁷³ and said she supported raising the minimum wage.³⁷⁴

In response to the housing crisis in the United States, Harris said she would increase home construction to reduce housing costs, arguing that it negatively impacts the economy and hurts working-class families. Harris proposed directing $40 billion to construction companies to build starter homes, and promised to send $25,000 in down-payment assistance to every first time home buyer.³⁷⁵ Harris said she would urge Congress to enforce fair housing laws and pass a bill to bar property owners from using services that "coordinate" rents through the passage of the Preventing the Algorithmic Facilitation of Rental Housing Cartels Act, and also call on Congress to pass the Stop Predatory Investing Act by removing tax benefits to Wall Street firms that buy up large numbers of single-family homes.³⁷⁶³⁷⁷ Trump proposed further individual and corporate tax cuts beyond the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.³⁷⁸ Trump argued that keeping taxes low for the wealthy increases job creation,³⁷⁹ and that these policies coupled with a crackdown in illegal immigration and reduction in inflation would help the middle class.³⁸⁰ Trump said he would reduce regulation of business through the creation of an efficiency commission led by Musk,³⁸¹ along with reducing environmental regulation. By October 2024, Musk was Trump's second-largest individual campaign donor.³⁸² Trump said deporting millions of immigrants would bring housing prices down, although most economists argue it could raise prices by removing construction workers who use less real estate.³⁸³³⁸⁴ Trump and Harris support not taxing tips for at least hospitality and service workers.³⁸⁵³⁸⁶ Trump suggested that he would abolish the federal income tax and replace it with tariffs. In June 2024, Trump discussed the idea of eliminating the income tax in a private meeting with Republican politicians.³⁸⁷ In October 2024, Trump suggested that he would scrap the income tax if he wins, pointing out that tariffs were the main sources of revenue in the 19th century.³⁸⁸

Trump's stated trade policy involves the United States decoupling from the global economy and having the country become more self-contained and exerting its power through individual trade dealings. This would be attempted largely through a universal baseline tariff,³⁸⁹ set from 10% to 20% on all imports,³⁹⁰³⁹¹ with increased penalties if trade partners manipulate their currency or engage in unfair trade practices.³⁹² Trump called for 100% tariffs on cars made outside the United States and a minimum 60% tariff on Chinese goods.³⁹³ Trump stated his plans to urge Congress to pass a Trump Reciprocal Trade Act to bestow presidential authority to impose a reciprocal tariff on any country that imposed one on the United States.³⁹⁴ The Washington Post reported in January 2024 that Trump was preparing for a massive trade war.³⁹⁵ Trump's trade policies were described as protectionist,³⁹⁶ neo-mercantilist, or autarkist,³⁹⁷³⁹⁸ and increasing inflation became a more common critique of Trump's economic plans.^399400401402 In June 2024, 16 Nobel Prize in Economics laureates signed an open letter arguing that Trump's fiscal and trade policies coupled with efforts to limit the Federal Reserve's independence would reignite inflation in the United States.^403404405 Moody's,⁴⁰⁶ as well as most economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal in July 2024, predicted that inflation would be worse under Trump than Biden, a result due in part to tariffs, a crack down on illegal immigration, and larger deficits.⁴⁰⁷ Trump incorrectly insisted foreign exporters pay tariffs imposed by the U.S. government; American importers pay tariffs on goods upon arrival at U.S. ports, meaning tariffs are taxes that raise prices for imported products Americans buy.^408409410 One non-partisan analysis estimated the proposed tariffs would cost $1,700 per year for the average household.⁴¹¹ The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget found that Trump's plans would grow the national debt at roughly twice the rate of Harris' plan,⁴¹² while the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy found Trump's plan would only benefit the top 5% of earners.⁴¹³

Education

Main article: Education in the United States

Further information: Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign § Education, 2020s controversies around critical race theory, and Parental rights movement

Trump pledged to terminate the U.S. Department of Education,^414415416 claiming it has been infiltrated by "radical zealots and Marxists".⁴¹⁷ At the American Federation of Teachers national convention, Harris attacked recent efforts to ban books in school libraries.⁴¹⁸ She also previously called for raising teachers' wages.⁴¹⁹

Healthcare issues

Further information: Kamala Harris 2024 presidential campaign § Healthcare, and Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign § Healthcare and social services

Unlike previous elections, healthcare reform played a much more minor role in the 2024 presidential election.⁴²⁰ Harris stated that she no longer supported a single-payer healthcare system as she had in 2020.⁴²¹ Instead, she said she intended to protect and expand items legislated during the Obama and Biden administrations. She said she would "maintain and grow" the Affordable Care Act, while Trump said that he would replace it with his own healthcare plan.⁴²² Harris also supported limiting yearly out-of-pocket drug costs for seniors, and expanding the $35 cap on insulin for seniors on Medicare to younger individuals in the program as well.⁴²³ Generally, both candidates supported using the government to rein in prescription drug costs.⁴²⁴ Trump suggested he was open to cutting entitlement programs, such as Social Security and Medicare, part of an effort to "[cut] waste" as described by his campaign. During his first term, several budget proposals did suggest cuts to the programs.⁴²⁵⁴²⁶ Additionally, Vance and Speaker of the House Mike Johnson suggested cuts to the ACA, including around pre-existing conditions, were part of Trump's plan.⁴²⁷ After Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump, Kennedy advocated for his "Make America Healthy Again" agenda, pledging to combat the upward trend in chronic disease patients, with Trump saying Kennedy would "go wild" regarding policy on food and medicines.⁴²⁸⁴²⁹

Foreign policy

Further information: Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign § Foreign policy, and Kamala Harris 2024 presidential campaign § Foreign policy

The Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Gaza war, and Chinese expansionism were some of the main foreign policy issues of the election. Harris signaled she would generally follow Biden's foreign policy on NATO and Ukraine, supporting both in the aftermath of the Russian invasion.⁴³⁰⁴³¹ A supporter of the two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict,⁴³²⁴³³ Harris was expected to continue Biden's approach;⁴³⁴ she was seen as tougher on Israel and more sympathetic to Palestinians than Biden or Trump.⁴³⁵ Harris advocated for "de-risking" from China, a policy that encourages reducing Western economic dependence on China.⁴³⁶ Harris was expected to continue deepening American alliances in Asia and the Pacific with the intention of curbing China's rising power both economically and militarily.⁴³⁷

Trump's 2024 campaign promoted an isolationist, "America First" foreign policy.⁴³⁸⁴³⁹ Trump said that America's allies "treat us actually worse than our so-called enemies", and added: "We protect them and then they screw us on trade." He also vowed to impose tariffs on trade partners; economists said this could spark trade wars.⁴⁴⁰ He promised to "fundamentally reevaluate" NATO, shifting the country's defense spending from Europe towards Asia.⁴⁴¹ Although NATO members are obliged to defend any other member who is attacked, Trump said he would encourage Russia to "do whatever the hell they want" to NATO allies that did not spend enough on defense.⁴⁴² NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg responded: "Any suggestion that allies will not defend each other undermines all of our security."⁴⁴³ Trump vowed that even before he was inaugurated,⁴⁴⁴ he would negotiate an end to the Russo-Ukrainian War in one day,⁴⁴⁵ He promised to quickly cut the amount of military and financial aid to Ukraine,⁴⁴⁶ and make Europeans reimburse the United States the cost of rebuilding its old stockpiles;⁴⁴⁷ however, most of the money for Ukraine actually goes to American factories that make weapons and military equipment.^448449450 Trump previously said he might recognize Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea,⁴⁵¹ and suggested the 2022 invasion could have been prevented by Ukraine giving up parts of its own country to Russia.⁴⁵² Trump was seen as more pro-Israel and less sympathetic to Palestine than Biden or Harris.⁴⁵³ Trump promised a tougher stance against China,⁴⁵⁴ and at the same time questioned whether the United States should defend Taiwan.⁴⁵⁵ Trump suggested withdrawing troops from South Korea if it does not pay more to support American troops there.⁴⁵⁶

Gaza war views

Further information: Gaza war protest vote movements and Gaza war protests in the United States

Polling indicated that the majority of voters support a ceasefire and American mediation in the Gaza war.⁴⁵⁷ According to a YouGov poll in March 2024, 52% of Americans supported stopping weapons shipments to Israel, coming largely from Americans who voted for Biden in 2020 (62% support) and people who did not vote in 2020 (60%). Republicans opposed halting weapons shipments by 25 points.⁴⁵⁸ Republicans generally supported arms to Israel, while Democrats were divided on the issue.⁴⁵⁹

Harris was expected to largely continue Biden's approach to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict,⁴⁶⁰ although she is seen as tougher on Israel and more sympathetic to Palestinians than Biden or Trump.⁴⁶¹ Following the 2023 Hamas-led attack on Israel, Harris at first supported Israel's offensive,⁴⁶²⁴⁶³ saying "the threat Hamas poses to the people of Israel must be eliminated".⁴⁶⁴ Since then, she criticized Israel's actions and the Gaza humanitarian crisis.⁴⁶⁵ In March 2024, Harris opposed Israel's invasion of Rafah,⁴⁶⁶ called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza,⁴⁶⁷⁴⁶⁸ and called the situation in Gaza a "humanitarian catastrophe".⁴⁶⁹ Harris supported continued aid to Israel and Palestine but insisted that Israel should agree to a ceasefire and hostage deal and both sides should move towards a two-state solution.⁴⁷⁰ In the Democratic primaries, the Uncommitted National Movement led a protest campaign against Biden over the war, calling for a ceasefire and arms embargo on Israel. It received over 700,000 votes and 36 delegates.⁴⁷¹ Harris was seen as more sympathetic to Palestinians, and she and her campaign interacted more with Arab-American and Uncommitted leaders;⁴⁷²⁴⁷³ however, Harris refused to halt weapons shipments to Israel or shift policy much from Biden, saying Israel has a right to defend itself.⁴⁷⁴⁴⁷⁵ By October, Uncommitted encouraged its members to vote for Harris.⁴⁷⁶

During his first term as president, Trump consistently supported Israel.⁴⁷⁷ He presented himself as a stronger defender of Israel than Biden, and was seen as less sympathetic to Palestine than Biden or Harris.⁴⁷⁸ Trump was expected to continue arming Israel, likely with "no strings attached" for humanitarian concerns.⁴⁷⁹ He voiced strong support for Israel's war on Hamas and Gaza, saying that Israel must "finish the problem".⁴⁸⁰ Trump told donors he would "crush" pro-Palestinian protests, deport non-citizen protesters, and "set the movement back 25 or 30 years".⁴⁸¹⁴⁸² Trump said he would ban Gaza residents from entering the United States.⁴⁸³ At times, he was critical of Israel's war in Gaza, saying Israel should "get it over with ... get back to peace and stop killing people".⁴⁸⁴⁴⁸⁵

Israeli-American billionaire Miriam Adelson sought support from candidate Trump for Israel's annexation of the West Bank, pledging more than $100 million to Trump's campaign in exchange for U.S. recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the region.⁴⁸⁶⁴⁸⁷ In January 2025, the Times of Israel reported that Adelson gave Trump's campaign at least $100 million in October 2024, making her that campaign's third largest donor.⁴⁸⁸

LGBTQ rights

Main articles: LGBTQ rights in the United States and Transgender rights in the United States

Further information: Kamala Harris 2024 presidential campaign § LGBTQ rights, Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign § LGBTQ rights and civil rights, and 2020s anti-LGBTQ movement in the United States

In the 2020s, conservative politicians in state legislatures introduced a growing number of bills that restrict the rights of LGBTQ people, especially transgender people.⁴⁸⁹ A strong supporter of LGBTQ people's rights,⁴⁹⁰ Harris denounced legislative attacks on transgender rights in states across the country.⁴⁹¹⁴⁹² Trump promised to roll back policies regarding transgender individuals.⁴⁹³ Harris and Walz campaigned as supporters of LGBTQ+ rights.⁴⁹⁴⁴⁹⁵ Trump stated he would rescind Biden's Title IX protections "on day one" for transgender students using bathrooms, locker rooms, and pronouns that align with their gender identities.⁴⁹⁶ Trump stated he would enact a federal law that would recognize only two genders and claimed that being transgender is a concept only recently manufactured by "the radical left".⁴⁹⁷ Trump previously withdrew Title IX provisions that allowed transgender youth to have access to the bathrooms of their choice, and he attempted to roll-back several transgender-related policies in the Affordable Care Act.⁴⁹⁸ Trump repeated a false claim that children undergo transgender surgery while at school, without parental knowledge or consent.⁴⁹⁹⁵⁰⁰ His campaign's "Kamala is for they/them, President Trump is for you" attack ad was the most effective of the campaign, shifting the race 2.7 percentage points in favor of Trump after viewers watched it.⁵⁰¹

Election-related violence

Assassination attempts

Main articles: Attempted assassination of Donald Trump in Pennsylvania and Attempted assassination of Donald Trump in Florida

On July 13, 2024, Trump survived an assassination attempt while addressing a campaign rally near Butler, Pennsylvania.⁵⁰² Trump was shot and wounded on his right ear by Thomas Matthew Crooks,⁵⁰³⁵⁰⁴ who fired eight rounds with an AR-15–style rifle from the roof of a building approximately 400 feet (120 metres) from the stage; the shots killed one audience member and critically injured two others.⁵⁰⁵ Seconds later, Crooks was shot and killed by the U.S. Secret Service's counter-sniper team.⁵⁰⁶ On September 11, 2024, a bipartisan Senate report identified tech issues and other preventable mistakes by the Secret Service during the event.⁵⁰⁷

On September 15, 2024, Trump survived a separate assassination attempt at Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida. The suspect did not fire his weapon, and no deaths or injuries were reported.⁵⁰⁸ The suspect, Ryan Wesley Routh, is in custody.⁵⁰⁹

Violence towards election workers

Since the 2020 election and continuing into the 2024 election, the election denial movement prompted thousands of death threats directed at election workers, officials, and their families, with some receiving letters laced with fentanyl.⁵¹⁰⁵¹¹ As of March 2024, the Department of Justice's Election Threats Task Force had charged 20 people with threat-related crimes.⁵¹² In September 2024, suspicious packages were sent to state election officials in several states, which resulted in evacuations. The inclusion of white powder in most of the packages mirrored the 2001 anthrax attacks; the substance in Oklahoma packages was identified as flour.⁵¹³ Threats led some election workers to resign, and affected recruitment of temporary poll workers.⁵¹⁴⁵¹⁵ In locations where funds were available,⁵¹⁶ efforts to protect election workers involved active shooter training, provision of first aid kits and Narcan, bulletproof vests, bulletproof glass, metal detectors, armed guards, police snipers, and drones.⁵¹⁷

Violence towards voters

On October 30, 2024, an 18-year-old man in Jacksonville, Florida, was arrested for aggravated assault and improper exhibition of a dangerous weapon after brandishing a machete at two women outside an early voting center. He, along with seven other teenagers, allegedly approached and antagonized members of the opposing political party as they were demonstrating. Neither the teenager's nor the women's political parties were disclosed, although later posts by the Duval Democratic Party described the teenager's party as a "group of young men carrying Trump flags".⁵¹⁸ On November 1, 2024, a voter wearing a "Let's Go Brandon" hat was reportedly struck by a poll worker after a verbal altercation over his hat at an Orangeburg County, South Carolina, polling location.⁵¹⁹ Also on November 1, a man in Bath, New York, was arrested for assaulting someone in a supermarket for wearing a Trump hat.⁵²⁰

Arson of ballot boxes

In late October 2024, multiple fires were reported at ballot drop boxes in Portland, Oregon, and Vancouver, Washington. The fires damaged hundreds of ballots, requiring election officials to identify and offer new ballots to those affected by the fires. Prior to the fires, the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Department of Homeland Security had issued a bulletin raising concerns that "election-related grievances" could motivate domestic extremist activity and that ballot drop boxes could potentially be "attractive targets".⁵²¹⁵²² In Phoenix, Arizona, a fire was started in a mail collection box, destroying some ballots and other mail. A suspect was arrested and claimed that the fire was unrelated to the election.⁵²³

Timeline

Main article: Timeline of the 2024 United States presidential election

Opinion polling and forecasts

Main article: Nationwide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election

Electoral College forecasts

See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election

Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts of the composition of the Electoral College. These forecasts use a variety of factors to estimate the likelihood of each candidate winning the Electoral College electors for that state. Most election predictors use the following ratings:

• "tossup": no advantage
• "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
• "lean" or "leans": slight advantage
• "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
• "very likely" (used by some predictors): massive advantage that is stronger than "likely"
• "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory

Below is a list of states considered by one or more forecast to be competitive; states that are deemed to be "safe" or "solid" by forecasters The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, CNalysis, Decision Desk HQ, and YouGov are omitted for brevity.⁵²⁴

Exit poll

Voter demographics

Issue questions

Polling accuracy

Following polling inaccuracies in connection with the 2020 presidential election, pollsters took steps to avoid similar errors in 2024.⁵⁴⁶⁵⁴⁷ Despite these efforts, national polls underestimated Trump's support once again in 2024.⁵⁴⁸ In 2016, national polls were fairly accurate; however, Trump overperformed the polls in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, leading to his Electoral College victory. In 2020, polls had overestimated Biden's margin over Trump by approximately 4% in competitive states.⁵⁴⁹ In 2024, pollsters underestimated Trump's support by smaller margins than they did in 2016 and 2020,⁵⁵⁰ and their underestimation of that support was within the realm of a normal polling error.⁵⁵¹⁵⁵² Going into the election, most polls showed the race to be neck and neck and within the margin of error.⁵⁵³ In every swing state, Trump outperformed his final polling numbers by approximately 3%, which is in line with a typical margin of error.⁵⁵⁴ Compared with the 2020 polls, the margin of error in 2024 in swing states was lower and high-quality national polls were more accurate.⁵⁵⁵

Polling averages vastly underestimated Trump's strength in both safe red and safe blue states.⁵⁵⁶⁵⁵⁷ Florida and Texas were both projected to go for Trump by about 7%; he won each of them by about 13%.⁵⁵⁸ Pollster Ann Selzer released a poll in Iowa that had Harris winning the state by 3%,⁵⁵⁹ only for Trump to take the state by 13%.⁵⁶⁰ On the other hand, New Jersey was projected to be a safe state for Harris but most news stations waited until 90% of the vote was in before calling it for Harris, as she was only leading by 5%.⁵⁶¹⁵⁶²

Debates

Main article: 2024 United States presidential debates

In April 2022, the Republican National Committee voted unanimously to withdraw from the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD).⁵⁶³ In May 2024, the Biden campaign proposed to hold two debates outside of the CPD timetable. Biden and Trump agreed to hold debates on CNN on June 27 and ABC News on September 10.⁵⁶⁴ Biden and Trump debated on June 27, 2024, in Atlanta, Georgia.⁵⁶⁵ After Biden suspended his re-election campaign,⁵⁶⁶ Harris became the Democratic nominee and debated Trump on September 10, 2024.⁵⁶⁷

Results

Trump won the Electoral College with 312 electoral votes to Harris' 226.⁵⁶⁸ He prevailed in all seven swing states.⁵⁶⁹ In addition, Trump won the national popular vote with a plurality of 49.8%;⁵⁷⁰ Harris received 48.3%.⁵⁷¹

On November 6, the day after Election Day, Harris publicly conceded the election to Trump.⁵⁷²

Electoral results

Results by state

Final reports as compiled from the certified vote totals of each state or district.⁵⁷⁶⁵⁷⁷

States that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Arizona
• Georgia
• Michigan
• Nevada
• Pennsylvania
• Wisconsin

Close states

The seven swing states in the 2024 election were the Rust Belt states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, as well as the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina.⁶⁴⁷

States where the margin of victory was under 1 percentage point (10 electoral votes; all won by Trump):

1. Wisconsin, 0.87% (29,397 votes) – 10 electoral votes

States/districts where the margin of victory was between 1 and 5 percentage points (87 electoral votes; 72 won by Trump, 15 won by Harris):

1. Michigan, 1.41% (80,103 votes) – 15 electoral votes
2. Pennsylvania, 1.71% (120,266 votes) – 19 electoral votes (tipping-point state)
3. Georgia, 2.20% (115,100 votes) – 16 electoral votes
4. New Hampshire, 2.78% (22,965 votes) – 4 electoral votes
5. Nevada, 3.10% (46,008 votes) – 6 electoral votes
6. North Carolina, 3.21% (183,046 votes) – 16 electoral votes
7. Minnesota, 4.24% (137,947 votes) – 10 electoral votes
8. Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, 4.59% (14,636 votes) – 1 electoral vote

States/districts where the margin of victory was between 5% and 10% (46 electoral votes; 12 won by Trump, 34 by Harris):

1. Arizona, 5.53% (187,382 votes) – 11 electoral votes
2. Virginia, 5.78% (260,310 votes) – 13 electoral votes
3. New Jersey, 5.91% (252,498 votes) – 14 electoral votes
4. New Mexico, 6.00% (55,411 votes) – 5 electoral votes
5. Maine, 6.94% (57,514 votes) – 2 electoral votes
6. Maine's 2nd congressional district, 9.03% (33,297 votes) – 1 electoral vote

Red denotes states or congressional districts won by Republican Donald Trump; Blue denotes those won by Democrat Kamala Harris.

County statistics

Counties with highest percentage of Democratic vote:⁶⁴⁸

1. District of Columbia – 90.28%⁶⁴⁹
2. Prince George's County, Maryland – 85.90%
3. Petersburg, Virginia – 85.52%⁶⁵⁰
4. Baltimore, Maryland – 84.55%⁶⁵¹
5. Oglala Lakota County, South Dakota – 83.83%

Counties with highest percentage of Republican vote:

1. Grant County, Nebraska – 95.90%
2. Roberts County, Texas – 95.63%
3. Borden County, Texas – 95.61%
4. King County, Texas – 95.56%
5. Hayes County, Nebraska – 95.55%

Maps

Analysis of results

Trump is the first president since Grover Cleveland in 1892 to win non-consecutive terms.⁶⁵² 2024 also marked the first time since 1892 that the incumbent party had lost in each of three consecutive presidential elections.⁶⁵³ Trump is the first Republican since George W. Bush in 2004 to win the popular vote and the first Republican since George W. Bush to win a second term in the White House. Trump is also the first non-incumbent Republican to have won the popular vote since George H. W. Bush in 1988.⁶⁵⁴⁶⁵⁵ Trump won a 1.48% margin of victory.⁶⁵⁶ While winning the popular vote, Trump did not win a majority of the popular vote; he is the first Republican since Richard Nixon in 1968 to win the popular vote with a plurality.⁶⁵⁷ Trump is also the first presidential candidate since Nixon in 1968 to successfully make a political comeback by winning an election after losing a previous one.

Trump carried 31 of 50 states.⁶⁵⁸ Trump is the first Republican presidential candidate to win Nevada since George W. Bush in 2004.⁶⁵⁹

The 2024 presidential election was the first presidential election since 1976 in which all 50 states and Washington, D.C. shifted towards the same party.⁶⁶⁰⁶⁶¹ Approximately 90% of counties swung towards Trump between the 2020 and 2024 elections, encompassing both rural and urban areas.⁶⁶² The 2024 election was the first presidential election since 1932 in which the losing candidate failed to flip a single county.⁶⁶³ Even among states that voted heavily for Biden in the 2020 election, Trump's gains were significant.⁶⁶⁴ The states of New York and New Jersey swung over ten points toward Trump, and Trump also made gains in Harris's home state of California.⁶⁶⁵

While Trump made gains among young voters compared to Republicans in recent presidential elections, especially among young men,⁶⁶⁶ exit polls found Harris still won young voters by 51 to 54 percent of voters under 30.⁶⁶⁷ Almost all demographic groups swung towards Trump from 2020; the exceptions to this trend included non-religious voters, LGBT voters, White women with college degrees, Black women, and voters making over $100,000 a year. According to exit polls, Harris's strongest income demographic consisted of voters making over $200,000 a year; she won those voters by a margin of 52–46%.⁶⁶⁸ Post-election research by the Brookings Institution found that while Trump made inroads with minority voters, the Republican Party had "hardly" created a multiracial coalition, arguing that saying so was premature and that such support "could very well be a blip" based on economic concerns.⁶⁶⁹

Aged 78 on Election Day, Trump is the oldest person ever to be elected U.S. president;⁶⁷⁰ Trump is also the first former president to win a state since Theodore Roosevelt in 1912. This was the first election since 1944 in which a presidential candidate won two elections with different vice presidential candidates; Trump replaced his 2016 and 2020 running mate, Mike Pence, with Vance.⁶⁷¹

Aftermath

Reactions

Crisis services for the LGBTQ+ community saw a sharp increase in usage during the election week. The Trevor Project's crisis lines saw a 125% increase since around midnight on election night according to a statement by CEO Jaymes Black on November 6, and followed an about 200% increase in election related conversations that had been seen between November 3–4. By November 8, it was reported that the organization saw an overall increase by 700%. The Crisis Text Line also reported that 56% of their users reported as LGBTQ+ on election day.⁶⁷²⁶⁷³

A company that assists wealthy Americans in securing foreign citizenship saw a 200× jump in inquiries following the election.⁶⁷⁴

Political

Democrats had differing views on why Harris lost the election. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders blamed Democrats for having abandoned the working class.⁶⁷⁵ Democratic National Committee chair Jaime Harrison dismissed Sanders' criticism.⁶⁷⁶⁶⁷⁷ Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi also disagreed with Sanders, blaming the party's loss on Biden's late exit and the lack of an open Democratic primary.⁶⁷⁸

Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) believed that the Democrats could not connect to a large amount of voters and should embrace populism going forward.⁶⁷⁹⁶⁸⁰ Representative Ritchie Torres (D-NY) attributed Trump's victory to public discontent over inflation and immigration; he asserted that Harris ran an effective campaign, but could not overcome a difficult electoral environment.⁶⁸¹

Financial

Wall Street's main indexes reported record highs on the day after the election, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 3.57%, the S&P 500 up 2.53%, and Nasdaq up 2.95%.⁶⁸²

"Stolen election" conspiracy theories

Following Trump's victory, some Harris supporters on X shared election denial conspiracy theories, claiming that millions of ballots were "left uncounted" and there being something "not right" with the election. Such posts falsely claiming Trump "stole" the election peaked at noon the day after at 94,000 posts per hour, with many receiving amplification and gaining over a million views each. According to Gordon Crovitz, the CEO of the media rating system NewsGuard, the phrase "Trump cheated" received 92,100 mentions on the platform from midnight until the Wednesday morning after.⁶⁸³ Besides the claims from Harris's supporters, some Trump supporters baselessly claimed the disparity between other years, the 2020 election, and a then-incomplete 2024 voting total indicated voter fraud in the 2020 election.⁶⁸⁴⁶⁸⁵

One major "basis" these false claims were founded upon was a claim that Biden won 20 million more votes in his prior election bid than Harris had in hers, at the time.⁶⁸⁶⁶⁸⁷ American journalist and conspiracy theorist Wayne Madsen commented on Threads: "I'm beginning to believe our election was massively hacked just like happened a few weeks ago in the Republic of Georgia."⁶⁸⁸ At the time these fallacies were disseminated, votes were still being counted in many states.⁶⁸⁹⁶⁹⁰ An estimate around the time using the Associated Press vote percentage total found that 16.2 million votes across twenty states and D.C. had yet to be counted. Statistical analysis of voting asserted that despite continued counting, the projections were already set and new ballots would not sway the outcomes of any of the states and D.C.⁶⁹¹ The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency director Jen Easterly refuted the false claims, and wrote in a statement that there was "no evidence of any malicious activity that had a material impact on the security or integrity of our election infrastructure".⁶⁹²⁶⁹³ Another false claim alleges Musk used the satellite internet constellation Starlink to change the results of the election. Chief technology officer Chip Trowbridge of voting system manufacturer Clear Ballot dismissed the claim and added no machine used to scan voting ballots have any network connection whatsoever.⁶⁹⁴

Text message harassment

Numerous Black Americans across multiple states reported receiving threatening, racist text messages the day after the election. Some of the texts referenced the incoming Trump administration, but the sender remained unknown as of November 10, 2024.⁶⁹⁵ Days later, several Hispanic and LGBTQIA students also reported receiving similar harassment through text messages and emails.⁶⁹⁶

Media analysis

Harris's loss

Harris's loss to Trump received substantial media analysis. Proposed explanations for the outcome of the race included inflation, the immigration crisis, a global incumbency backlash, Biden's late exit from the race, and the lack of an open Democratic primary process. Democrats and others argued about what went wrong and how the party should move forward.⁶⁹⁷⁶⁹⁸

Electoral environment

According to Gallup, most factors with respect to the electoral environment favored Republicans and Trump. These included low confidence in the economy, Republicans outnumbering Democrats in party affiliation (48-45%), low national satisfaction, Republicans being favored to address the economy and immigration, and Biden's low job approval rating. Harris was viewed more favorably on character and had an advantage on some issues.⁶⁹⁹ No incumbent party has won when a president had below a 45% approval rating, either losing reelection (Jimmy Carter in 1980, George H. W. Bush in 1992, and Trump himself in 2020) or the incumbent party lost the White House (Hubert Humphrey in 1968).⁷⁰⁰⁷⁰¹

According to exit polls, voters disapproved of Biden's performance 59-39%, and disapproved of how things were going in the United States 73-25%. Also, voters judged the economy negatively 68-32%,⁷⁰² and said that inflation had caused them hardship 75-24%.⁷⁰³ A YouGov poll conducted from November 6–7, 2024 found that if Biden had been the Democratic nominee, Trump would have won the popular vote 49-42%.⁷⁰⁴ Nonpartisan election forecasters, including The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, stated before the election that Biden would have been almost certain to lose.⁷⁰⁵⁷⁰⁶

Harris did improve compared to Biden among voters making over $100,000 a year.⁷⁰⁷ NBC News found that Trump made larger gains in counties with tougher housing markets.⁷⁰⁸

Almost every incumbent party worldwide facing election in 2024 lost vote share, including in South Africa, India, France, the United Kingdom, and Japan.⁷⁰⁹⁷¹⁰ Among democracies, over 80 percent saw the incumbent party lose support compared to the last election.⁷¹¹ This is the first time this has ever happened since 1905 (when data was first recorded) and the first time in the history of democracy, as universal suffrage began in 1894.⁷¹²⁷¹³

All 50 states and the District of Columbia shifted rightward compared to 2020. Trump's gains in nearly all geographic areas and among nearly every demographic group provides strong evidence of anti-incumbent backlash.⁷¹⁴⁷¹⁵ The shifts toward Trump were much less in the swing states where both campaigns focused compared to safe states. The two states with the largest shifts toward Trump, New York and New Jersey, were both won by Harris. Harris had very little room to fall in the swing states, given that Biden had won most of them by very small margins in 2020.⁷¹⁶

Statistician and election analyst Nate Silver argued before the election that the national electoral environment was difficult for Democrats.⁷¹⁷ This view was also shared by The New York Times political analyst Nate Cohn.⁷¹⁸ After the election, Silver felt that Harris was a replacement-level candidate who did much better than Biden would have, but was unable to separate herself from Biden's record and was negatively perceived by swing voters due to her previous positions.⁷¹⁹ Amy Walter, editor of the nonpartisan The Cook Political Report, also argued that the electoral environment was inherently difficult for Harris because the top issue for voters was inflation during the Biden-Harris administration.⁷²⁰

Ronald Brownstein of The Atlantic, who spoke with members of Harris's campaign, argued that the extent of Biden's unpopularity and public discontent with the economy proved too much for Harris to overcome. Brownstein compared the election to the 1968 presidential election (when unpopular incumbent Lyndon B. Johnson withdrew his candidacy and Vice President Hubert Humphrey lost to Richard Nixon) and the 1980 presidential election (when incumbent Jimmy Carter lost to Ronald Reagan due to stagflation and the 1970s energy crisis). Members of Harris's campaign stated after the election that their internal polling never showed Harris ahead of Trump and they did not believe that Harris was the favorite to win the election.⁷²¹ David Plouffe, a senior campaign advisor to Harris, claimed that even making the race competitive was a win for Harris's staff.⁷²²

An analysis released by Democratic-leaning data firm Catalist in May 2025 found that Trump's victory rested on support from voters who were less engaged with politics, as well as weakened support and turnout for Harris from a range of Democratic-leaning groups. Nearly half of the 2024 electorate cast ballots in the previous four federal elections, representing an increase of 9 points from 2020 and 7 points from 2016, and Harris won under 50 percent of these voters, outperforming Biden's and Hillary Clinton's respective performances. In contrast, Harris won 48 percent of voters who only voted in two or fewer of the previous four federal elections, underperforming Biden and Clinton, both of whom won at least 54 percent of those voters. Harris also won less than half of voters who did not cast a vote in 2020 but did so in 2024, compared to Biden and Clinton each winning roughly 55 percent of new voters in their respective elections; Catalist considered this Democratic underperformance to be unprecedented in their history of election analysis. Jennifer Agiesta of CNN reported that new and infrequent voters in 2024 were more likely to be from Democratic-leaning groups but also less likely to have college degrees, a trait increasingly tied to Republican support.⁷²³⁷²⁴

Analyst assessments

The Independent's Jon Sopel wrote that the most pressing issues that decided Harris's defeat were matters Biden had been perceived as a failure at by the American public; these included the fact that, as part of the global 2021–2023 inflation surge, inflation went up by 20% and real wages had not adjusted to match, and the state of the Mexico–United States border. Sopel said that by "embracing the Biden agenda, [Harris] was simply tying herself to his unpopularity".⁷²⁵

In a Time piece, Henry M. J. Tonks tied the result to the party's prioritization of professional class workers and suburbs over working class, blue-collar voters. He argued the shift away from working-class voters had been occurring since the late 1960s in response to the Vietnam War and the growth of the tech industry.⁷²⁶ Of the electoral jurisdictions that Harris won – 19 states, DC, and Nebraska's second congressional district – all except New Mexico had above-average educational attainment.⁷²⁷

CNN's Edward-Isaac Dovere felt that some problems, such as the problems with her staff, could have been solved, but other problems such as her ties with Biden could not have been solved. Dovere mused that had Biden stepped down earlier, the Democratic Party might have had the time to launch a proper primary campaign. He also mused that Walz was chosen because he could not "outshine" her, and that this reflected her "newfound confidence and her long-standing insecurity".⁷²⁸ The Economic Times cited surveys showing "broad negative sentiment" about the economy, and Harris being "relentlessly hammered" by Trump during campaigns about this. The Economic Times cited University of Richmond School of Law professor Carl Tobias's appraisal of Trump's stance on immigration winning over Harris's, and mentioned how Trump had increased his support from Hispanics, especially near the Mexican–American border and in areas impacted by recent immigration.⁷²⁹ Harris campaigning at multiple events with former Republican representative Liz Cheney has been suggested as a contributing factor as to why she lost.^730731732

Los Angeles Times's Noah Bierman felt Harris could not overcome being the "turn the page" candidate, and cited former president Barack Obama's lead strategist David Axelrod, who said: "If you're the vice president of an administration people want to fire, you're way behind the eight-ball to start." Bierman wrote that besides criminal context, Trump "never followed a script, scoffed at the rules and spoke directly to the economic and cultural anxieties of the country".⁷³³ In The New York Times, Timothy Shenk argued that Democrats failed to articulate a vision for the future other than being against Trump and did not lean into a message of economic populism that polled best with swing voters but also that the election looked more like a rejection of Biden than the embrace of Trump.⁷³⁴ In another The New York Times article, Nate Cohn analyzed exit polls showing Trump's gains among Non-White and young voters, suggesting Trump's populist message resonated with many voters previously considered part of the Democratic Party's base.⁷³⁵ Jen Psaki, who served as Biden's first press secretary, suggested that Harris focusing on Anti-Trump Republicans was not a winning strategy.⁷³⁶

Charlie Cook, founder of the nonpartisan The Cook Political Report, said that swing voters broke in favor of Trump due to anger over inflation associated with the Biden-Harris administration, causing Trump to sweep the swing states. However, Democrats did better in down-ballot races, meaning Trump did not have a strong coattail effect.⁷³⁷ The Atlantic's Ronald Brownstein argued that the Democratic Party's success in the 2022 midterm elections, when Trump was not on the ballot, had led them to underestimate Trump's support. Democrats also performed better than Harris in down-ballot races, suggesting voters likely assigned their blame over the economy on the Biden-Harris administration rather than the Democratic Party at-large.⁷³⁸

The BBC's Courtney Subramanian said Harris "couldn't shake the anti-Biden sentiment that permeated much of the electorate", that she "failed to deliver a convincing argument about why she should lead the country", did not state a strategy to combat economic frustrations, and failed to address widespread concerns over immigration.⁷³⁹ Vox's Nicole Narea highlighted inflation outpacing wages in certain industries, rising unemployment, and rising consumer debt and falling savings as key economic indicators that Democrats "may have missed".⁷⁴⁰ In another Vox article, Andrew Prokop argued Harris suffered from a worldwide backlash to incumbents over inflation, as well as her struggles unifying the party over Gaza, failing to be a change candidate, and her difficulty in defending or abandoning positions she took during her 2020 presidential run.⁷⁴¹

Trump's victory

Although many conventional metrics indicated that the American economy had recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic (wages increased and inflation was in check), and although migrant crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border had declined significantly since earlier in the Biden administration, an AP article stated that Trump was able to convince voters to support him in 2024 by promising to fix the economy and block the flow of immigrants at the border.⁷⁴² According to exit polls, voters whose top issues were the economy and immigration largely voted for Trump.⁷⁴³

Time's Eric Cortellessa wrote that the thesis of Trump's campaign boiled down to this simple slogan: "Max out the men and hold the women". To accomplish this goal, Trump "relentlessly" emphasized the economy and immigration. Cortellessa also mentioned Trump's minimization of his numerous controversies and his success in having his criminal trials postponed until after the election. He said that Trump's "advanced age and increasingly incoherent trail rhetoric" were taken in stride by voters, and that "much of the country read Trump's legal woes as part of a larger corrupt conspiracy to deny him, and them, power".⁷⁴⁴ NPR wrote that "Americans have continued to chafe at higher than pre-pandemic prices and the lack of affordable housing", and that much of the voter placed the blame "squarely" on the Biden administration. NPR said demographics played an important role in the election, with White voters going up as a share of the electorate from 67% to 71% and Trump winning 46% of Latinos. NPR also noted that polls underestimated Trump's level of support in battleground states and across the nation.⁷⁴⁵

The New York Times asserted that "[Trump] made one essential bet: that his grievances would become the grievances of the MAGA movement, and then the G.O.P., and then more than half the country. It paid off." The Times added that Trump's several setbacks actually benefited his public image and approval, as "his mug shot became a best-selling shirt. His criminal conviction inspired $100 million in donations in one day. The images of him bleeding after a failed assassination attempt became the symbol of what supporters saw as a campaign of destiny."⁷⁴⁶

NBC mentioned a Democratic strategist's contention that male voters' belief that they were "being left behind, that society doesn't have a place for them" was a major factor in men's support for Trump. The network said that Trump's approval ratings among non-college-educated and middle-income voters, especially among Latinos and young men, showed that he had made strides in his promise to assemble a multiracial, working-class coalition.⁷⁴⁷ Trump increased his support from Hispanics from 2020 to 2024, especially near the Mexican–American border and in areas impacted by recent immigration.⁷⁴⁸

Several observers pointed to shifting habits in how Americans consume media and a growing lack of trust in mainstream news outlets.⁷⁴⁹⁷⁵⁰ Trump embraced alternative media through podcasts and online streamers such as Joe Rogan, Adin Ross, Theo Von, and the Nelk Boys. The New York Times reported that such avenues "presented a way for Mr. Trump to sidestep more confrontational interviews with professional journalists, where he might face tough questions, fact-checks and detailed policy debates. The influencers he met with rarely challenged Mr. Trump, and often lavished him with praise."⁷⁵¹ Observers also highlighted Trump's courting of the "manosphere",⁷⁵² a collection of what The Guardian described as "male podcasters, influencers and public figures" that "marketed themselves as free-thinking pundits who evaded the bounds of political classification".⁷⁵³ Post-election research showed that nearly 40% of young voters got their news from social media influencers, and that a majority of those influencers leaned right.⁷⁵⁴

The New York Times reported that Trump's super PAC had joined a long list of presidential campaigns that made a "technological leap or innovation" while targeting key voters. The Times highlighted the use of targeted advertising of individual undecided voters on streaming video platforms that allowed the PAC to save money, while Harris largely targeted ads on streaming platforms by geography. It reported the Trump team's findings that the undecided electorate was younger, black, and Hispanic, and that such voters largely used streaming media over traditional broadcast television.⁷⁵⁵

Journalist Elizabeth Spiers argued that Trump's strong support among young white men could be attributed to his campaign "channeling what psychologists call 'hegemonic masculinity'". Spiers added that "For men unhappy with their status, this view offers a group of people to blame, which feels more tangible than blaming systemic problems like rising economic inequality and the difficulty of adapting to technological and cultural changes."⁷⁵⁶

Viewership

See also

• 2020s portal
• Politics portal
• United States portal

• 2024 United States elections
  • 2024 United States gubernatorial elections
  • 2024 United States House of Representatives elections
  • 2024 United States Senate elections
• Timeline of the 2024 United States presidential election
• Republican Party efforts to disrupt the 2024 United States presidential election

Notes

Further reading

• Isenstadt, Alex (March 18, 2025). Revenge: The Inside Story of Trump's Return to Power. Grand Central Publishing. ISBN 978-1538765517.
• Allen, Jonathan; Parnes, Amie (April 1, 2025). Fight: Inside the Wildest Battle for the White House. William Morrow. ISBN 978-0063438644.
• Whipple, Chris (April 8, 2025). Uncharted: How Trump Beat Biden, Harris, and the Odds in the Wildest Campaign in History. Harper Influence. ISBN 978-0063386211.
• Tapper, Jake; Thompson, Alex (May 20, 2025). Original Sin: President Biden's Decline, Its Cover-Up, and His Disastrous Choice to Run Again. Penguin Press. ISBN 979-8217060672.
• Dawsey, Josh; Pager, Tyler; Arnsdorf, Isaac (July 8, 2025). 2024: How Trump Retook the White House and the Democrats Lost America. Penguin Press. ISBN 978-0593832530.
• Wolff, Michael (February 25, 2025). All or Nothing: How Trump Recaptured America. Crown. ISBN 978-0593735381.

External links

• An Extremely Detailed Map of the 2024 Election from The New York Times
• "Misinformation Dashboard: Election 2024. A tool tracking the topics and tactics of 2024 election misinformation". News Literacy Project. 2024. Retrieved September 30, 2024.
• Dovere, Edward-Isaac (November 6, 2024). "Where Harris' campaign went wrong". CNN. Retrieved November 7, 2024.
• "The Choice 2024: Harris vs. Trump". Frontline. Season 43. Episode 2. September 24, 2024. PBS. WGBH. Retrieved November 28, 2024.
• "The VP Choice: Vance vs. Walz". Frontline. Season 43. Episode 3. October 8, 2024. PBS. WGBH. Retrieved November 28, 2024.

References

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537. Unlike the other 48 states and Washington, D.C., which award all of their electors to the candidate who receives the most votes in that state, Maine and Nebraska award two electors to the winner of the statewide vote and one each to the candidate who receives the most votes in each congressional district. ↩

538. The boundaries of Maine and Nebraska's congressional districts have since changed because of redistricting. ↩

539. Unlike the other 48 states and Washington, D.C., which award all of their electors to the candidate who receives the most votes in that state, Maine and Nebraska award two electors to the winner of the statewide vote and one each to the candidate who receives the most votes in each congressional district. ↩

540. The boundaries of Maine and Nebraska's congressional districts have since changed because of redistricting. ↩

541. Unlike the other 48 states and Washington, D.C., which award all of their electors to the candidate who receives the most votes in that state, Maine and Nebraska award two electors to the winner of the statewide vote and one each to the candidate who receives the most votes in each congressional district. ↩

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