In statistics, a unit root test tests whether a time series variable is non-stationary and possesses a unit root. The null hypothesis is generally defined as the presence of a unit root and the alternative hypothesis is either stationarity, trend stationarity or explosive root depending on the test used.
General approach
In general, the approach to unit root testing implicitly assumes that the time series to be tested [ y t ] t = 1 T {\displaystyle [y_{t}]_{t=1}^{T}} can be written as,
y t = D t + z t + ε t {\displaystyle y_{t}=D_{t}+z_{t}+\varepsilon _{t}}where,
- D t {\displaystyle D_{t}} is the deterministic component (trend, seasonal component, etc.)
- z t {\displaystyle z_{t}} is the stochastic component.
- ε t {\displaystyle \varepsilon _{t}} is the stationary error process.
The task of the test is to determine whether the stochastic component contains a unit root or is stationary.1
Main tests
Other popular tests include:
- augmented Dickey–Fuller test2 this is valid in large samples.
- Phillips–Perron test
- KPSS test here the null hypothesis is trend stationarity rather than the presence of a unit root.
- ADF-GLS test
Unit root tests are closely linked to serial correlation tests. However, while all processes with a unit root will exhibit serial correlation, not all serially correlated time series will have a unit root. Popular serial correlation tests include:
Notes
- Bierens, H. J. (2001). "Unit roots". In Baltagi, B. (ed.). A Companion to Econometric Theory. Oxford: Blackwell Publishers. pp. 610–633. "2007 revision"
- Enders, Walter (2004). Applied Econometric Time Series (Second ed.). John Wiley & Sons. pp. 170–175. ISBN 0-471-23065-0.
- Maddala, G. S.; Kim, In-Moo (1998). "Issues in Unit Root Testing". Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Structural Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. pp. 98–154. ISBN 0-521-58782-4.
References
Kočenda, Evžen; Alexandr, Černý (2014), Elements of Time Series Econometrics: An Applied Approach, Karolinum Press, p. 66, ISBN 978-80-246-2315-3. 978-80-246-2315-3 ↩
Dickey, D. A.; Fuller, W. A. (1979). "Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root". Journal of the American Statistical Association. 74 (366a): 427–431. doi:10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531. /wiki/Journal_of_the_American_Statistical_Association ↩