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Main Himalayan Thrust
Geological feature

The Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) is a décollement under the Himalaya Range. This thrust fault follows a northwest-southeast strike, reminiscent of an arc, and gently dips about 10 degrees towards the north, beneath the region. It is the largest active continental megathrust fault in the world.

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Overview

The MHT accommodates crustal shortening of India and Eurasia as a result of the ongoing collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates.3 The MHT absorbs around 20mm/yr of slip, nearly half of the total convergence rate. This slip can be released from small-scale earthquakes and some plastic deformation, but the MHT still accumulates a deficit of moment of 6.6×1019 Nm/yr. The MHT also remains locked with the overlying Eurasian plate from its surface expression to the front of the higher Himalayas, nearly 100 kilometres away. This locking mechanism combined with the rapid accumulation of deficit of moment are concerning, as some professionals estimate that earthquakes up to the size of 8.9 on the Richter scale could be in order for regions such as western Nepal. Earthquakes of this magnitude are estimated to have a return period of over 1000 years in this region.4 Deformation of the crust is also accommodated along splay structures including the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT), Main Boundary Thrust (MBT), Main Central Thrust (MCT), and possibly the South Tibetan Detachment. The MHT is the root detachment of these splays. Currently, the MFT and MHT accounts for almost the entire rate of convergence (15–21 mm/yr).56 This fault defines where the Indian subcontinent is underthrust beneath the Himalayan orogenic wedge.

Seismic hazard

The MHT is a known hazard and potential source for large earthquakes of magnitude 8.0 or greater. The MHT is also associated with other large 20th-century earthquakes in [[1950 Assam–Tibet earthquake|1950 (Mw  8.7)]] and [[1934 Nepal–India earthquake|1934 (Mw  8.0)]]. Within the last thousand years, multiple earthquakes have occurred with magnitudes of at least Mw  8.0, as deduced by paleoseismology. Michel et al. (2021) suggested the maximum magnitude possible on the MHT to be Mw  8.7 with a recurrence interval of 200 years.7

In April 2015, a section of the MHT produced a blind rupture earthquake, killing nearly 9,000 people.89 Researchers who published their findings in Nature Geoscience revealed that the Mw  7.8 earthquake failed to rupture towards the surface, with the possibility of future large earthquakes. They said that since the rupture ceased 11 km (6.8 mi) beneath the Kathmandu region, a shallow section of the MHT, south of Kathmandu, remains unruptured. The shallow section remains locked and could produce an earthquake of comparable size. The research lead, J. R. Elliott, says such an earthquake could be more devastating because of its shallowness.10

Associated seismicity

The Main Himalayan Thrust and its splay branches has been the source of numerous earthquakes, including some that are indirectly related.

DateCountryMagnitudeDepth (km)MMIDeathsCommentsSource
1255-06-07Nepal8.0+-Rupture length uncertain but possibly in the hundreds of kilometers. Killed one-third of Nepal's population.1112
1344-09-14Nepal-13
1408Nepal-14
1505-06-06Nepal, India and China8.2–8.81516-Killed 30% of the Nepalese population.17
1680Nepal<7.5-18
1714-05-4Bhutan7.6–8.6-IX"Many"Ruptured the whole Bhutan section of the Main Frontal Thrust.19
1803-09-01India7.8–7.9-IX300Damage as far as New Delhi.
1833-08-26Nepal7.5–7.9-IX500Severely damaged Kathmandu and was felt as far as Calcutta.20
1905-04-04India7.9-X20,000+21
1934-01-05Nepal and India8.115.0XI12,000Ruptured to the surface via the Main Frontal Thrust.22
1947-07-29China7.320.0V
1950-08-15India, China and Myanmar8.615.0XI4,800Ranks among the largest Strike-slip earthquake ever instrumentally recorded.23
1966-06-27Nepal and India6.137.08024
1980-07-29Nepal and India6.517.5VIII20025
1988-08-21Nepal6.957.4VIII700-1400
1991-10-20India6.810.3IX2000Main Central Thrust.
1999-03-29India6.821.0VII103
2005-10-08Pakistan7.626.0XI87,40026
2009-09-21Bhutan6.114.0VI1127
2011-09-18India6.950.0VII111Intraplate strike-slip.
2013-05-01Pakistan and India5.715.0VII1Additional 59 injured.28
2015-04-25Nepal7.88.2VIII8,96429
2015-05-12Nepal7.318.5VIII218Aftershock of the April 2015 earthquake.30
2015-07-24Pakistan5.117.0V331
2019-09-24Pakistan6.010.0VII4032

See also

References

  1. Sieh, Kerry (2007). "The Sunda megathrust - Past, present and future" (PDF). Journal of Earthquake and Tsunami. 1. California Institute of Technology: 1-19. doi:10.1142/S179343110700002X. ISSN 1793-4311. http://tecto.caltech.edu/sumatra/downloads/papers/Snu.pdf ↩

  2. Liu, Y.; Hubbard, J.; Almeida, R.V.; Foster, A.; Liberty, L.; Lee, Y.S.; Sapkota, S.N. (2020). "Constraints on the Shallow Deformation Around the Main Frontal Thrust in Central Nepal from Refraction Velocities". Tectonophysics. 777: 228366. Bibcode:2020Tectp.77728366L. doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2020.228366. hdl:10356/143621 – via Boise State University. https://scholarworks.boisestate.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1511&context=geo_facpubs ↩

  3. Hubbard, J.; Almeida, R.; Foster, A.; Sapkota, S.N.; Bürgi, P.; Tapponnier, P. (2016). "Structural segmentation controlled the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake rupture in Nepal". Geology. 44 (8): 639–642. Bibcode:2016Geo....44..639H. doi:10.1130/G38077.1. hdl:10220/50430. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/305269615 ↩

  4. Ader, Thomas, et al. “Convergence Rate across the Nepal Himalaya and Interseismic Coupling on the Main Himalayan Thrust: Implications for Seismic Hazard.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, vol. 117, no. B4, 2012, doi:10.1029/2011jb009071. /wiki/Doi_(identifier) ↩

  5. Le Roux-Mallouf, R.; Godard, V.; Cattin, R.; Ferry, M.; Gyeltshen, J.; Ritz, J.–F.; Drupka, D.; Guillou, V.; Arnold, M.; Aumaitre, G.; Bourlès, D.L.; Keddadouche, K. (2015). "Evidence for a wide and gently dipping Main Himalayan Thrust in western Bhutan" (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters. 42 (9): 3257–3265. Bibcode:2015GeoRL..42.3257L. doi:10.1002/2015GL063767. S2CID 30608419. http://www.gm.univ-montp2.fr/spip/IMG/pdf/cattingrl15.pdf ↩

  6. Hubbard, J. "Geometry and Kinematics of the Main Frontal Thrust, Himalaya". Earth Observatory of Singapore. Retrieved 27 October 2020. https://earthobservatory.sg/project/geometry-and-kinematics-main-frontal-thrust-himalaya ↩

  7. Michel, Sylvain; Jolivet, Romain; Rollins, Chris; Jara, Jorge; Zilio, Luca Dal (2021). "Seismogenic Potential of the Main Himalayan Thrust Constrained by Coupling Segmentation and Earthquake Scaling". Geophysical Research Letters. 48 (13). doi:10.1029/2021GL093106. PMC 9285541. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9285541 ↩

  8. "M 7.8 - 36km E of Khudi, Nepal". US Geological Survey. Archived from the original on 2020-08-13. https://web.archive.org/web/20200813083448/https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us20002926/executive ↩

  9. Duputel, Z.; Vergne, J.; Rivera, L.; Wittlinger, G.; Farra, V.; Hetényi, G. (2016). "The 2015 Gorkha earthquake: A large event illuminating the Main Himalayan Thrust fault" (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters. 43 (6): 2517–2525. Bibcode:2016GeoRL..43.2517D. doi:10.1002/2016GL068083. S2CID 53463752. https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/77175162.pdf ↩

  10. Koirala, Keshav P. (12 January 2016). "Nepal earthquake "damaged Main Himalayan Thrust fault"". The Himalayan. Retrieved 15 May 2024. https://thehimalayantimes.com/science-and-tech/nepal-earthquake-has-ruptured-main-himalayan-thrust-fault-study ↩

  11. National Geophysical Data Center / World Data Service (NGDC/WDS): NCEI/WDS Global Significant Earthquake Database. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (1972). "Comments for the 1255 Earthquake". NOAA. National Geophysical Data Center, NOAA. doi:10.7289/V5TD9V7K. Archived from the original on 2017-12-16. Retrieved 2020-10-17. https://web.archive.org/web/20171216112019/https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/nndc/struts/results?eq_0=9947&t=101650&s=13&d=22,26,13,12&nd=display ↩

  12. Pierce, I.; Wesnousky, S.G. (2016). "On a flawed conclusion that the 1255 A.D. earthquake ruptured 800 km of the Himalayan Frontal Thrust east of Kathmandu". Geophysical Research Letters. 43 (17): 9026–9029. Bibcode:2016GeoRL..43.9026P. doi:10.1002/2016GL070426. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/307553126 ↩

  13. Bollinger, L.; Tapponnier, P.; Sapkota, S.N.; Klinger, Y. (2016). "Slip deficit in central Nepal: omen for a repeat of the 1344 AD earthquake?". Earth Planets Space. 68 (12). Bibcode:2016EP&S...68...12B. doi:10.1186/s40623-016-0389-1. hdl:10220/39981. S2CID 32078899. /wiki/Paul_Tapponnier ↩

  14. Bollinger, L.; Tapponnier, P.; Sapkota, S.N.; Klinger, Y. (2016). "Slip deficit in central Nepal: omen for a repeat of the 1344 AD earthquake?". Earth Planets Space. 68 (12). Bibcode:2016EP&S...68...12B. doi:10.1186/s40623-016-0389-1. hdl:10220/39981. S2CID 32078899. /wiki/Paul_Tapponnier ↩

  15. Jha, Madan Kumar (2010). Natural and Anthropogenic Disasters: Vulnerability, Preparedness and Mitigation. New Delhi: Springer. pp. 25–26. ISBN 978-90-481-2497-8. 978-90-481-2497-8 ↩

  16. Bilham R.; Ambraseys N.N. (2005). "Apparent Himalayan slip deficit from the summation of seismic moments for Himalayan earthquakes, 1500–2000" (PDF). Current Science. 88 (10): 1658–1663. JSTOR 24110492. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-03-04. Retrieved 2015-08-21. /wiki/Nicholas_Ambraseys ↩

  17. Rajendran, C.P.; Rajendran, K.; Sanwal, J.; Sandiford, M. (2013). "Archeological and Historical Database on the Medieval Earthquakes of the Central Himalaya: Ambiguities and Inferences" (PDF). Seismological Research Letters. 84 (6): 1098–1108. Bibcode:2013SeiRL..84.1098R. doi:10.1785/0220130077. http://www.seismosoc.org/Publications/srl/SRL_84/srl_84-6_hs_II/srl_84-6_hs_II.pdf ↩

  18. Bollinger, L.; Tapponnier, P.; Sapkota, S.N.; Klinger, Y. (2016). "Slip deficit in central Nepal: omen for a repeat of the 1344 AD earthquake?". Earth Planets Space. 68 (12). Bibcode:2016EP&S...68...12B. doi:10.1186/s40623-016-0389-1. hdl:10220/39981. S2CID 32078899. /wiki/Paul_Tapponnier ↩

  19. Zhao, Y.; Grujic, D.; Baruah, S.; Drukpa, D.; Elkadi, J.; Hetényi, G.; King, G.E.; Mildon, Z.K.; Nepal, N.; Welte, C. (2021). "Paleoseismological Findings at a New Trench Indicate the 1714 M8.1 Earthquake Ruptured the Main Frontal Thrust Over all the Bhutan Himalaya". Frontiers in Earth Science. 9. doi:10.3389/feart.2021.689457. hdl:10026.1/18289. https://doi.org/10.3389%2Ffeart.2021.689457 ↩

  20. Chaulagain, H.; Gautam, D.; Rodrigues, H. (2018). "Chapter 1 - Revisiting Major Historical Earthquakes in Nepal: Overview of 1833, 1934, 1980, 1988, 2011, and 2015 Seismic Events". In Gautam, D.; Rodrigues, H.F.P. (eds.). Impacts and Insights of the Gorkha Earthquake. Elsevier. pp. 1–17. ISBN 9780128128091. 9780128128091 ↩

  21. Pant, C.C.; Pathak, V.; Joshi, S. (2016). "Extant Seismicity and Regional Tectonic Interpretation: An illustration from Kumaun Himalaya, Uttarakhand, India". In Singh, S.P.; Khanal, S.C.; Joshi, M. (eds.). Lessons From Nepal's Earthquake For The Indian Himalayas And The Gangetic Plains (PDF). Central Himalayan Environment Association. p. 31. https://ansab.org.np/storage/product/lessons-from-nepal-earthquake-for-the-indian-himalayas-and-the-gangetic-plains-min-1579162485.pdf ↩

  22. "M 8.0 - Nepal-India border region". US Geological Survey. Archived from the original on 2020-10-18. https://web.archive.org/web/20201018024206/https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/iscgem904745/executive ↩

  23. "M 8.6 - 1950 Assam-Tibet Earthquake". US Geological Survey. Archived from the original on 2020-10-19. https://web.archive.org/web/20201019004145/https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/official19500815140934_30/executive ↩

  24. P. N. Agrawal (1969). "Structural response results during the June 27, 1966 earthquake in Nepal-India border region". Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. 59 (2): 771–775. Bibcode:1969BuSSA..59..771A. doi:10.1785/BSSA0590020771. https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/bssa/article-abstract/59/2/771/116722/Structural-response-results-during-the-June-27?redirectedFrom=fulltext ↩

  25. "M 6.5 - 40 km NNE of Dipayal, Nepal". earthquake.usgs.gov. U.S. Geological Survey. Retrieved 10 January 2022. https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usp0001959/executive ↩

  26. Zahid Ali; Muhammad Qaisar; Tariq Mahmood; Muhammad Ali Shah; Talat Iqbal; Leonello Serva; Alessandro M. Michetti; Paul W. Burton (2009). "The Muzaffarabad, Pakistan, earthquake of 8 October 2005: surface faulting, environmental effects and macroseismic intensity". Special Publications. 316 (1). The Geological Society of London: 155–172. Bibcode:2009GSLSP.316..155A. doi:10.1144/SP316.9. S2CID 128469925. https://sp.lyellcollection.org/content/316/1/155?ck=nck ↩

  27. "M 6.1 - Bhutan". US Geological Survey. https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/iscgem13788745/executive ↩

  28. Mukhtar Ahmad (1 May 2013). "Moderate earthquake kills 1, injures 59 in eastern Kashmir". CNN. Retrieved 10 January 2022. https://edition.cnn.com/2013/05/01/world/asia/india-earthquake/index.html ↩

  29. "M 7.8 - 36km E of Khudi, Nepal". US Geological Survey. Archived from the original on 2020-08-13. https://web.archive.org/web/20200813083448/https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us20002926/executive ↩

  30. Hubbard, J.; Almeida, R.; Foster, A.; Sapkota, S.N.; Bürgi, P.; Tapponnier, P. (2016). "Structural segmentation controlled the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake rupture in Nepal". Geology. 44 (8): 639–642. Bibcode:2016Geo....44..639H. doi:10.1130/G38077.1. hdl:10220/50430. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/305269615 ↩

  31. "M 5.1 - 19km WSW of Murree, Pakistan". US Geological Survey. Archived from the original on 2020-10-28. https://web.archive.org/web/20201028212245/https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us20002zz3/executive ↩

  32. Sreejith, K.M.; Jasir, M.C.M.; Agrawal, R.; Rajawat, A.S. (2021). "The 2019 September 24, Mw = 6, Mirpur earthquake, NW Himalaya: Geodetic evidence for shallow, near-horizontal décollement rupture of the Main Himalayan Thrust". Tectonophysics. 816 (229013). Elsevier. doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2021.229013. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S004019512100295X ↩