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Reference.org
Reference class forecasting
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<p>Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. The theories behind reference class forecasting were developed by <a href="/facts/Daniel_Kahneman/YnI99yAy">Daniel Kahneman</a> and <a href="/facts/Amos_Tversky/DfvE3URJ">Amos Tversky</a>. The theoretical work helped Kahneman win the <a href="/facts/Nobel_Prize_in_Economics/8BBwNwre">Nobel Prize in Economics</a>. </p><p>Reference class <a href="/facts/Forecasting/pwFtGyzM">forecasting</a> is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast. </p><p>Discussion of which reference class to use when forecasting a given situation is known as the <a href="/facts/Reference_class_problem/SGDGYmc7">reference class problem</a>. </p>