Clustering illusion

<h2 id="similar-biases">Similar biases</h2>
<p>Using this <a href="/facts/Cognitive_bias/49YKVhmN">cognitive bias</a> in causal reasoning may result in the <a href="/facts/Texas_sharpshooter_fallacy/9xvaNM4Q">Texas sharpshooter fallacy</a>, in which differences in data are ignored and similarities are overemphasized. More general forms of erroneous pattern recognition are <i><a href="/facts/Pareidolia/JWvWUvkK">pareidolia</a></i> and <i><a href="/facts/Apophenia/CLQ15Yat">apophenia</a></i>. Related biases are the <i><a href="/facts/Illusion_of_control/FVhvVUWd">illusion of control</a></i> which the clustering illusion could contribute to, and <i><a href="/facts/Insensitivity_to_sample_size/eRWXJ5pG">insensitivity to sample size</a></i> in which people don't expect greater variation in smaller samples. A different cognitive bias involving misunderstanding of chance streams is the <a href="/facts/Gambler%2527s_fallacy/UXV5j7dD">gambler's fallacy</a>.
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<h2 id="possible-causes">Possible causes</h2>
<p><a href="/facts/Daniel_Kahneman/YnI99yAy">Daniel Kahneman</a> and <a href="/facts/Amos_Tversky/DfvE3URJ">Amos Tversky</a> explained this kind of misprediction as being caused by the <a href="/facts/Representativeness_heuristic/GDKvCmLR">representativeness heuristic</a><a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:9" href="#fn:9"><sup>9</sup></a> (which itself they also first proposed).
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<h2 id="see-also">See also</h2>
<ul><li><a href="/facts/Apophenia/CLQ15Yat">Apophenia</a></li>
<li><a href="/facts/Alignments_of_random_points/5g5fatqb">Alignments of random points</a></li>
<li><a href="/facts/Complete_spatial_randomness/bdyuoY75">Complete spatial randomness</a></li>
<li><a href="/facts/Confirmation_bias/o5rHY4lP">Confirmation bias</a></li>
<li><a href="/facts/List_of_cognitive_biases/1d1rwe2N">List of cognitive biases</a></li>
<li><a href="/facts/Numeracy_bias/rVH7rRJe">Numeracy bias</a></li>
<li><a href="/facts/Poisson_clumping/Jq7QeljE">Poisson clumping</a></li>
<li><a href="/facts/Poisson_distribution/CvCzXkHr">Poisson distribution</a></li>
<li><a href="/facts/Statistical_randomness/Ns0bkleV">Statistical randomness</a></li></ul>

<h2 id="external-links">External links</h2>

Wikimedia Commons has media related to Clustering illusion.

<ul><li><a href="http://skepdic.com/clustering.html">Skeptic's Dictionary: The clustering illusion</a></li>
<li><a href="http://thehothand.blogspot.com/">Hot Hand website:  Statistical analysis of sports streakiness</a></li></ul>

<h2 id="references">References</h2>

<ol>
<li id="fn:1"><p>Gilovich, Thomas (1991). How we know what isn't so: The fallibility of human reason in everyday life. New York: The Free Press. ISBN 978-0-02-911706-4. <a href="978-0-02-911706-4" target="_blank">978-0-02-911706-4</a> <a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li>
<li id="fn:2"><p>Gilovich, Thomas (1991). How we know what isn't so: The fallibility of human reason in everyday life. New York: The Free Press. ISBN 978-0-02-911706-4. <a href="978-0-02-911706-4" target="_blank">978-0-02-911706-4</a> <a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li>
<li id="fn:3"><p>Kahneman, Daniel; Amos Tversky (1972). "Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness". Cognitive Psychology. 3 (3): 430–454. doi:10.1016/0010-0285(72)90016-3. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" target="_blank">/wiki/Doi_(identifier)</a> <a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li>
<li id="fn:4"><p>Clarke, R. D. (1946). "An application of the Poisson distribution". Journal of the Institute of Actuaries. 72 (3): 481. doi:10.1017/S0020268100035435. <a href="https://www.actuaries.org.uk/documents/application-poisson-distribution" target="_blank">https://www.actuaries.org.uk/documents/application-poisson-distribution</a> <a href="#fnref:4" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li>
<li id="fn:5"><p>Gilovich, 1991 p. 19 <a href="#fnref:5" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li>
<li id="fn:6"><p>Mori, Kentaro. "Seeing patterns". Retrieved 3 March 2012. <a href="http://forgetomori.com/2009/skepticism/seeing-patterns/" target="_blank">http://forgetomori.com/2009/skepticism/seeing-patterns/</a> <a href="#fnref:6" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li>
<li id="fn:7"><p>"Bombing London". Archived from the original on 2012-02-21. Retrieved 3 March 2012. <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20120221221013/http://www.dur.ac.uk/stat.web/bomb.htm" target="_blank">https://web.archive.org/web/20120221221013/http://www.dur.ac.uk/stat.web/bomb.htm</a> <a href="#fnref:7" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li>
<li id="fn:8"><p>Tierney, John (3 October 2008). "See a pattern on Wall Street?" (October 3, 2008). TierneyLab. New York Times. Retrieved 3 March 2012. <a href="/wiki/John_Tierney_(journalist)" target="_blank">/wiki/John_Tierney_(journalist)</a> <a href="#fnref:8" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li>
<li id="fn:9"><p>Kahneman, Daniel; Amos Tversky (1972). "Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness". Cognitive Psychology. 3 (3): 430–454. doi:10.1016/0010-0285(72)90016-3. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" target="_blank">/wiki/Doi_(identifier)</a> <a href="#fnref:9" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li>
</ol>

Clustering illusion open-in-new

Clustering illusion