With a basic calculation the bolt thrust produced by a particular firearms cartridge can be calculated fairly accurately.
where:
Cartridge case heads and chambers are generally circular. The area enclosed by a circle is:
Equivalently, denoting the diameter of the circle by d.
A practical problem regarding this method is that the internal case head diameter of a particular production lot of cartridge cases (different brands and lots normally differ dimensionally) can not be easily measured without damaging them.
A complicating matter regarding bolt thrust is that a cartridge case expands and deforms under high pressure and starts to "stick" to the chamber. This "friction-effect" can be accounted for with finite elements calculations on a computer, but it is a lot of specialized work and generally not worth the trouble.2
By oiling proof rounds during NATO EPVAT testing procedures, NATO test centers intentionally lower case friction to promote high bolt thrust levels.
Instead of using the internal case head diameter, the external case head base diameter can also be measured with a caliper or micrometer or taken from the appropriate C.I.P. or SAAMI cartridge or chamber data tables and used for bolt thrust estimation calculations.
The basic calculation method is almost the same, but now the larger outside area of the cartridge case head is used instead of the smaller inside area.
This method is fine for getting a good estimate regarding bolt thrust and assumes an overly large area that the gas pressure acts against yielding pessimistic estimations, generating a safety margin in the process for worse case scenarios which can result in increased maximum (peak) chamber pressure of the firearms cartridge, like a round that is chambered in an already very warm chamber that can result in cooking off (i.e. a thermally induced unintended firing).
The P1 (cartridge case base) diameters and Pmax used in the calculations were taken from the appropriate C.I.P. data sheets.
A Look at Bolt Lug Strength By Dan Lilja Archived March 3, 2010, at the Wayback Machine http://www.riflebarrels.com/articles/custom_actions/bolt_lug_strength.htm ↩
Stolle Panda Bolt Stress and Deflection Analysis http://www.varmintal.net/abolt.htm ↩