Each cash inflow/outflow is discounted back to its present value (PV). Then all are summed such that NPV is the sum of all terms: P V = R t ( 1 + i ) t {\displaystyle \mathrm {PV} ={\frac {R_{t}}{(1+i)^{t}}}} where:
The result of this formula is multiplied with the Annual Net cash in-flows and reduced by Initial Cash outlay the present value, but in cases where the cash flows are not equal in amount, the previous formula will be used to determine the present value of each cash flow separately. Any cash flow within 12 months will not be discounted for NPV purpose, nevertheless the usual initial investments during the first year R0 are summed up a negative cash flow.4
The NPV can also be thought of as the difference between the discounted benefits and costs over time. As such, the NPV can also be written as:
where:
Given the (period, cash inflows, cash outflows) shown by (t, B t {\displaystyle B_{t}} , C t {\displaystyle C_{t}} ) where N is the total number of periods, the net present value N P V {\displaystyle \mathrm {NPV} } is given by:
The NPV can be rewritten using the net cash flow ( R t ) {\displaystyle (R_{t})} in each time period as: N P V ( i , N ) = ∑ t = 0 N R t ( 1 + i ) t {\displaystyle \mathrm {NPV} (i,N)=\sum _{t=0}^{N}{\frac {R_{t}}{(1+i)^{t}}}} By convention, the initial period occurs at time t = 0 {\displaystyle t=0} , where cash flows in successive periods are then discounted from t = 1 , 2 , 3... {\displaystyle t=1,2,3...} and so on. Furthermore, all future cash flows during a period are assumed to be at the end of each period.5 For constant cash flow R, the net present value N P V {\displaystyle \mathrm {NPV} } is a finite geometric series and is given by:
N P V ( i , N , R ) = R ( 1 − ( 1 1 + i ) N + 1 1 − ( 1 1 + i ) ) , i ≠ 0 {\displaystyle \mathrm {NPV} (i,N,R)=R\left({\frac {1-\left({\frac {1}{1+i}}\right)^{N+1}}{1-\left({\frac {1}{1+i}}\right)}}\right),\quad i\neq 0}
Inclusion of the R 0 {\displaystyle R_{0}} term is important in the above formulae. A typical capital project involves a large negative R 0 {\displaystyle R_{0}} cashflow (the initial investment) with positive future cashflows (the return on the investment). A key assessment is whether, for a given discount rate, the NPV is positive (profitable) or negative (loss-making). The IRR is the discount rate for which the NPV is exactly 0.
The NPV method can be slightly adjusted to calculate how much money is contributed to a project's investment per dollar invested. This is known as the capital efficiency ratio. The formula for the net present value per dollar investment (NPVI) is given below:
If the discounted benefits across the life of a project are $100 million and the discounted net costs across the life of a project are $60 million then the NPVI is:
That is for every dollar invested in the project, a contribution of $0.6667 is made to the project's NPV.6
The NPV formula assumes that the benefits and costs occur at the end of each period, resulting in a more conservative NPV. However, it may be that the cash inflows and outflows occur at the beginning of the period or in the middle of the period.
The NPV formula for mid period discounting is given by:
Over a project's lifecycle, cash flows are typically spread across each period (for example spread across each year), and as such the middle of the year represents the average point in time in which these cash flows occur. Hence mid period discounting typically provides a more accurate, although less conservative NPV.78 ЧикЙ The NPV formula using beginning of period discounting is given by:
This results in the least conservative NPV.
Main article: Annual effective discount rate
The rate used to discount future cash flows to the present value is a key variable of this process.
A firm's weighted average cost of capital (after tax) is often used, but many people believe that it is appropriate to use higher discount rates to adjust for risk, opportunity cost, or other factors. A variable discount rate with higher rates applied to cash flows occurring further along the time span might be used to reflect the yield curve premium for long-term debt.
Another approach to choosing the discount rate factor is to decide the rate which the capital needed for the project could return if invested in an alternative venture. If, for example, the capital required for Project A can earn 5% elsewhere, use this discount rate in the NPV calculation to allow a direct comparison to be made between Project A and the alternative. Related to this concept is to use the firm's reinvestment rate. Re-investment rate can be defined as the rate of return for the firm's investments on average. When analyzing projects in a capital constrained environment, it may be appropriate to use the reinvestment rate rather than the firm's weighted average cost of capital as the discount factor. It reflects opportunity cost of investment, rather than the possibly lower cost of capital.
An NPV calculated using variable discount rates (if they are known for the duration of the investment) may better reflect the situation than one calculated from a constant discount rate for the entire investment duration. Refer to the tutorial article written by Samuel Baker9 for more detailed relationship between the NPV and the discount rate.
For some professional investors, their investment funds are committed to target a specified rate of return. In such cases, that rate of return should be selected as the discount rate for the NPV calculation. In this way, a direct comparison can be made between the profitability of the project and the desired rate of return.
To some extent, the selection of the discount rate is dependent on the use to which it will be put. If the intent is simply to determine whether a project will add value to the company, using the firm's weighted average cost of capital may be appropriate. If trying to decide between alternative investments in order to maximize the value of the firm, the corporate reinvestment rate would probably be a better choice.
Main article: rNPV
Using variable rates over time, or discounting "guaranteed" cash flows differently from "at risk" cash flows, may be a superior methodology but is seldom used in practice. Using the discount rate to adjust for risk is often difficult to do in practice (especially internationally) and is difficult to do well.
An alternative to using discount factor to adjust for risk is to explicitly correct the cash flows for the risk elements using risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) or a similar method, then discount at the firm's rate.
NPV is an indicator of how much value an investment or project adds to the firm. With a particular project, if R t {\displaystyle R_{t}} is a positive value, the project is in the status of positive cash inflow in the time of t. If R t {\displaystyle R_{t}} is a negative value, the project is in the status of discounted cash outflow in the time of t. Appropriately risked projects with a positive NPV could be accepted. This does not necessarily mean that they should be undertaken since NPV at the cost of capital may not account for opportunity cost, i.e., comparison with other available investments. In financial theory, if there is a choice between two mutually exclusive alternatives, the one yielding the higher NPV should be selected. A positive net present value indicates that the projected earnings generated by a project or investment (in present dollars) exceeds the anticipated costs (also in present dollars). This concept is the basis for the Net Present Value Rule, which dictates that the only investments that should be made are those with positive NPVs.
An investment with a positive NPV is profitable, but one with a negative NPV will not necessarily result in a net loss: it is just that the internal rate of return of the project falls below the required rate of return.
NPV is an indicator for project investments, and has several advantages and disadvantages for decision-making.
The NPV includes all relevant time and cash flows for the project by considering the time value of money, which is consistent with the goal of wealth maximization by creating the highest wealth for shareholders.
The NPV formula accounts for cash flow timing patterns and size differences for each project, and provides an easy, unambiguous dollar value comparison of different investment options.1011
The NPV can be easily calculated using modern spreadsheets, under the assumption that the discount rate and future cash flows are known. For a firm considering investing in multiple projects, the NPV has the benefit of being additive. That is, the NPVs of different projects may be aggregated to calculate the highest wealth creation, based on the available capital that can be invested by a firm.12
The NPV method has several disadvantages.
The NPV approach does not consider hidden costs and project size. Thus, investment decisions on projects with substantial hidden costs may not be accurate.13
The NPV is heavily dependent on knowledge of future cash flows, their timing, the length of a project, the initial investment required, and the discount rate. Hence, it can only be accurate if these input parameters are correct; although, sensitivity analyzes can be undertaken to examine how the NPV changes as the input variables are changed, thus reducing the uncertainty of the NPV.14
The accuracy of the NPV method relies heavily on the choice of a discount rate and hence discount factor, representing an investment's true risk premium.15 The discount rate is assumed to be constant over the life of an investment; however, discount rates can change over time. For example, discount rates can change as the cost of capital changes.1617 There are other drawbacks to the NPV method, such as the fact that it displays a lack of consideration for a project’s size and the cost of capital.1819
The NPV calculation is purely financial and thus does not consider non-financial metrics that may be relevant to an investment decision.20
Comparing mutually exclusive projects with different investment horizons can be difficult. Since unequal projects are all assumed to have duplicate investment horizons, the NPV approach can be used to compare the optimal duration NPV.21
The time-discrete formula of the net present value
can also be written in a continuous variation
where
Net present value can be regarded as Laplace-2223 respectively Z-transformed cash flow with the integral operator including the complex number s which resembles to the interest rate i from the real number space or more precisely s = ln(1 + i).
From this follow simplifications known from cybernetics, control theory and system dynamics. Imaginary parts of the complex number s describe the oscillating behaviour (compare with the pork cycle, cobweb theorem, and phase shift between commodity price and supply offer) whereas real parts are responsible for representing the effect of compound interest (compare with damping).
A corporation must decide whether to introduce a new product line. The company will have immediate costs of 100,000 at t = 0. Recall, a cost is a negative for outgoing cash flow, thus this cash flow is represented as −100,000. The company assumes the product will provide equal benefits of 10,000 for each of 12 years beginning at t = 1. For simplicity, assume the company will have no outgoing cash flows after the initial 100,000 cost. This also makes the simplifying assumption that the net cash received or paid is lumped into a single transaction occurring on the last day of each year. At the end of the 12 years the product no longer provides any cash flow and is discontinued without any additional costs. Assume that the effective annual discount rate is 10%.
The present value (value at t = 0) can be calculated for each year:
The total present value of the incoming cash flows is 68,136.91. The total present value of the outgoing cash flows is simply the 100,000 at time t = 0. Thus:
In this example:
Observe that as t increases the present value of each cash flow at t decreases. For example, the final incoming cash flow has a future value of 10,000 at t = 12 but has a present value (at t = 0) of 3,186.31. The opposite of discounting is compounding. Taking the example in reverse, it is the equivalent of investing 3,186.31 at t = 0 (the present value) at an interest rate of 10% compounded for 12 years, which results in a cash flow of 10,000 at t = 12 (the future value).
The importance of NPV becomes clear in this instance. Although the incoming cash flows (10,000 × 12 = 120,000) appear to exceed the outgoing cash flow (100,000), the future cash flows are not adjusted using the discount rate. Thus, the project appears misleadingly profitable. When the cash flows are discounted however, it indicates the project would result in a net loss of 31,863.09. Thus, the NPV calculation indicates that this project should be disregarded because investing in this project is the equivalent of a loss of 31,863.09 at t = 0. The concept of time value of money indicates that cash flows in different periods of time cannot be accurately compared unless they have been adjusted to reflect their value at the same period of time (in this instance, t = 0).24 It is the present value of each future cash flow that must be determined in order to provide any meaningful comparison between cash flows at different periods of time. There are a few inherent assumptions in this type of analysis:
More realistic problems would also need to consider other factors, generally including: smaller time buckets, the calculation of taxes (including the cash flow timing), inflation, currency exchange fluctuations, hedged or unhedged commodity costs, risks of technical obsolescence, potential future competitive factors, uneven or unpredictable cash flows, and a more realistic salvage value assumption, as well as many others.
A more simple example of the net present value of incoming cash flow over a set period of time, would be winning a Powerball lottery of $500 million. If one does not select the "CASH" option they will be paid $25,000,000 per year for 20 years, a total of $500,000,000, however, if one does select the "CASH" option, they will receive a one-time lump sum payment of approximately $285 million, the NPV of $500,000,000 paid over time. See "other factors" above that could affect the payment amount. Both scenarios are before taxes.
Many computer-based spreadsheet programs have built-in formulae for PV and NPV.
Net present value as a valuation methodology dates at least to the 19th century. Karl Marx refers to NPV as fictitious capital, and the calculation as "capitalising," writing:25
The forming of a fictitious capital is called capitalising. Every periodically repeated income is capitalised by calculating it on the average rate of interest, as an income which would be realised by a capital at this rate of interest.
In mainstream neo-classical economics, NPV was formalized and popularized by Irving Fisher, in his 1907 The Rate of Interest and became included in textbooks from the 1950s onwards, starting in finance texts.2627
This paragraph is an excerpt from Adjusted present value.[edit]
This paragraph is an excerpt from Accounting rate of return.[edit]
This section is an excerpt from Cost–benefit analysis.[edit]
Cost–benefit analysis (CBA), sometimes also called benefit–cost analysis, is a systematic approach to estimating the strengths and weaknesses of alternatives. It is used to determine options which provide the best approach to achieving benefits while preserving savings in, for example, transactions, activities, and functional business requirements.32 A CBA may be used to compare completed or potential courses of action, and to estimate or evaluate the value against the cost of a decision, project, or policy. It is commonly used to evaluate business or policy decisions (particularly public policy), commercial transactions, and project investments. For example, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission must conduct cost–benefit analyses before instituting regulations or deregulations.33: 6
This section is an excerpt from Internal rate of return.[edit]
This section is an excerpt from Modified internal rate of return.[edit]
This paragraph is an excerpt from Payback period.[edit]
These paragraphs are an excerpt from Equivalent annual cost.[edit]
In finance, the equivalent annual cost (EAC) is the cost per year of owning and operating an asset over its entire lifespan. It is calculated by dividing the negative NPV of a project by the "present value of annuity factor":
where r is the annual interest rate and
t is the number of years.
Alternatively, EAC can be obtained by multiplying the NPV of the project by the "loan repayment factor".
EAC is often used as a decision-making tool in capital budgeting when comparing investment projects of unequal lifespans. However, the projects being compared must have equal risk: otherwise, EAC must not be used.37
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